Kelley: Matthew Judon Putting Patriots in No-Win Situation

Matthew Judon announced before training camp that he would be participating. “I ain’t giving no money away,” Judon proclaimed. He was referring to potential fines for missing mandatory team activities. Judon was present and participating in the mandatory minicamp. He was present and participating during training camp practices last week. But things have gone off the rails between Matthew Judon and the New England Patriots.

At this point, the Patriots have been put in a no-win situation by Judon regardless of how things play out from here. Eliot Wolf and Jerod Mayo are in charge in Foxboro now. They stressed “tearing down silos” and having a collaborative effort to turn things around in New England. Matthew Judon appears to have built a silo around himself.

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The narrative around the Judon-Patriots conflict needs a disclaimer. Like everyone else, I am under the impression that the tensions are a result of the linebacker’s contract situation. If there is something aside from a contract dispute happening, I reserve the right to take back all analysis on the situation. For for now, I will proceed under the assumption his current situation (more on that below) is being caused by unhappiness over his contract with the team.

Matthew Judon’s Current Contract

Judon signed with New England as a free agent in 2021. The deal was for four years and $54.5 million. There was $30 million guaranteed in the deal. Before the 2023 season, Judon renegotiated his deal. moving some money from 2024 to 2023. That leaves Judon earning $6.5 million for 2024.

There are multiple ways to look at this situation. The first way to look at it is in Judon’s own words.

“I signed a deal. My signature’s on it so I got to play on it,” Judon told the media at the start of training camp. “Would I like to? No. Do I think that’s my value? No.”

Will Matthew Judon play on his current contract?

"I've got to… I signed the deal. My signature's on it, so I've got to play on it."

"Would I like to? No. Do I think that's my value? No."@ABC6 #NEPats pic.twitter.com/dAcz3OKqKL

— Ian Steele (@RealianSteele6) July 24, 2024

As he states, he signed the deal and is under contract to play for the New England Patriots in 2024. However, Judon left the practice field yesterday after talking to head coach Jerod Mayo (Judon was watching pass-rushing drills from the sideline but not participating). He was a no-show at the team facilities today.

Judon’s value exceeds $6.5 million in 2024, assuming he returns to his pre-injury form. Judon’s value was far below what he was paid in 2023, as he appeared in only four games for New England. That’s the risk both sides take when signing a contract.

Was Drew Rosenhaus the Breaking Point?

Eliot Wolf said he was bringing “The Packer Way” to New England when he was given the final say for the Patriots franchise. The emphasis is to draft, develop, and extend core players. With this in mind, players the team signed to multi-year contracts this offseason would be viewed as “core players” for New England.

Kendrick Bourne and Hunter Henry received contracts just before being able to test free agency. New England re-signed Mike Onwenu, Kyle Dugger, and Anfernee Jennings all agreed to deals in free agency to keep them in Foxboro beyond 2024. Contract extensions were agreed to be Christian Barmore, David Andrews, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jahlani Tavai, and Rhamondre Stevenson this offseason. All six were scheduled to become free agents in 2025.

Eleven players from the 2023 New England Patriots have been signed through at least the 2025 season since Eliot Wolf took charge of decision-making for the franchise. Matthew Judon is not one of them, despite being the team’s lone Pro Bowl selection over the past two seasons.

On Monday, agent Drew Rosenhaus came to Foxboro. Rosenhaus represents Patriots defensive tackle Davon Godchaux, not Judon. Godchaux enters 2024 as the final year of his contract as well. The assumption was that Rosenhaus was coming to New England to iron out details on an extension for Godchaux, which would be the seventh signed by a Patriots player this offseason.

Later that day, Judon exited the practice field and did not return to the team’s facilities today.

No-Win Situation for New Regime

Bill Belichick held the final say over nearly every major decision in New England for over two decades. This is the first year for Eliot Wolf as the “final say” in the front office and Jerod Mayo is a rookie head coach. They navigated free agency and the NFL Draft since taking over the reins of the organization. This is the duo’s first training camp in charge and the first significant drama they’ve faced.

What can Wolf and Mayo do?

There are only three realistic options here, as noted in a poll I posted on X yesterday. The team can give Judon a bump in pay for the 2024 season to make him happy enough to show up for work, without extending him. They can negotiate an extension with Judon, which would pay him closer to his perceived value (likely in the $20 million per year range). New England can also trade him. They can allow him to negotiate a deal with another team (or not) and send him on his way.

How the New England Patriots handle the situation with Matthew Judon is a very important test for the Eliot Wolf and Jerod Mayo Era in Foxboro. How will this situation be resolved? #NEPats #PatsCamp https://t.co/c1O7gvVUyj

— Dan Kelley (@DanKelley66) July 29, 2024

Do any of these scenarios help Eliot Wolf and Jerod Mayo? The Patriots could be seen as caving to a player who is not displaying a team-first attitude. Or they trade away a very talented player with a limited market knowing their hands are tied.

Public Perception

It is difficult to say which side New England Patriots fans will take in this situation. Smart money is there will be a split on opinions. Twenty years ago fans might have said, “Trade the diva” and wiped their hands clean of a player under contract who is not willing to play for $6.5 million. For comparison’s sake, there is a good chance I end up working 50 years and not making $6.5 million total in half a century. It makes it tough to relate.

But this is not 20 years ago and Matthew Judon is arguably the most popular player on the team. He was incredibly productive in his two-plus seasons before last year’s injury. He also comes across as a very personable and likable guy. He’s the type of player NFL fans want on their team, not getting traded away for a mid-round draft choice, or whatever the return might be. There is also a better understanding by fans of the limited timeframe players have to earn big money and they dangers they face by playing the sport in the first place.

Bill Belichick might have pulled the trigger on a trade and sent him to Carolina for whatever the Panthers felt like giving in return. But Belichick also had Tom Brady, a handful of Super Bowl rings, and a winning track record that allowed him to make bold moves. He also did not care what the press or public thought about any of his decisions, which was more of an advantage than many appreciated. The feeling here is that the new bosses in town care very much about the public perception of their moves.

Resolution

Judon doesn’t want to play under his current contract. The Patriots don’t want to extend him with a deal he believes is “market value” for his services. If they did it would have already gotten done. Is there a way to resolve this situation amicably with everyone saving face?

With Judon AWOL on Tuesday, he put himself in a bit of a corner. Despite saying he’d play under his current contract just a week ago that is no longer going to happen. Judon showing up to practice with the Patriots is not an option without a change in his contract status. If he does, all this drama is for nothing.

Eliot Wolf and Jerod Mayo can’t let players dictate how the team does business. Having unhappy campers was a concern mentioned on Patriots Football Now more than once before camp. New England’s brain trust had to realize this was a possibility if it occurred to this scribe. Judon and Godchaux both remain without extensions and neither will be happy until it does.

The prediction here is that New England ends up trading Matthew Judon. It would be a sad resolution to his tenure with the team. But giving him a salary bump for 2024, with no obligation to do so, could end as well as it did with Trent Brown a year ago. Coming to a contract agreement is unlikely if Judon is looking for something in the three-year $60 million range.

So Eliot Wolf and Jerod Mayo need to show that the players aren’t running the show with the New England Patriots under their watch. The stud linebacker goes on the market and the Patriots hold out for a second-round pick. Maybe Matthew Judon wins in this scenario with a new home and possibly a new deal. Maybe New England’s front office win by adding draft capital while saving face. But the New England Patriots fans lose, which stinks.