Dan Kelley’s Week 8 NFL Winners and Survivor Pool Picks

My Week 7 NFL picks finished with a solid 11-4 record, which included a 7-1 record for my eight most confident picks. My “elite options” went 3-0 for the week, the second straight week of going undefeated with that group after a slow start to the season.

Picking against teams continues to be a winning formula. Sometimes it’s easier to identify teams likely to lose instead of trying to figure out which teams are most likely to win. Last week’s safest bets included going against the Titans, Browns, Panthers, Giants, and Patriots.

My survivor pick of Week 7 was the Buffalo Bills beating the Tennessee Titans. The Bills won easily, by a final score of 34-10, after falling behind early. My survivor picks record improved to 4-3 after a 1-3 start.

AMARI COOPER. TOUCHDOWN BILLS.

📺: #TENvsBUF on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/y1lE7R509g

— NFL (@NFL) October 20, 2024

Once again, I am picking the winners for each game. The point spread is not taken into account.

Last Week’s Record: 11-4
2024 Season Record: 70-37

Last Week’s Elite Options Record: 3-0
2024 Elite Options Record: 18-9

Also Read – Week 8 NFL Power Rankings: Kansas City Stands Alone

Elite Options

After back-to-back undefeated weeks with my elite options, it was tempting to stick to only two picks in this tier for Week 8. By the time I was done mulling it over, there were five games I felt extremely confident about.

Baltimore Ravens (at Cleveland): The Ravens were the best bet of the week once before and lost to the Raiders. They return for Week 8, though the Browns could have an improved offense without Deshaun Watson.

Detroit Lions (vs. Tennessee): One of the best teams in the NFL playing one of the worst. A solid argument could be made for this being the safest bet of the week.

Kansas City Chiefs (at Las Vegas): Antonio Pierce’s obsession with stopping Patrick Mahomes gave me a slight pause here. But the Chiefs have been rolling even when their quarterback is not at his best.

Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. NY Giants): Russell Wilson might not be as fortunate getting bailed out by his receivers this week, but the Steelers are a much better team. This pick is more betting against the Giants to win.

Denver Broncos (vs. Carolina): This is simply a pick against the Panthers. The Broncos still scare me as a safe bet, but they’ve proven they are at least a tier or two above Carolina.

It's a 2 TD night for Javonte Williams 🙌 @Broncos are up 26-3#DENvsNO on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/B8sf6QSt77

— NFL (@NFL) October 18, 2024

Feeling Great

Great might be an overstatement for this group for Week 8. It’s a significant drop-off from the elite picks, but more confident than some of the underdogs I think will win in the tier below.

Houston Texans (vs. Indianapolis): Texans look to rebound from a close loss in Green Bay. A divisional win would do the trick.

Buffalo Bills (at Seattle): A cross-country trip against a Seahawks team coming off a big win. But the Bills need to keep winning to keep up with the Chiefs and Ravens atop the AFC.

Atlanta Falcons (at Tampa Bay): Had the Buccaneers not seen wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin go down on Monday, they might be the pick here. But it will be hard to match Atlanta’s offense shorthanded.

Los Angeles Chargers (at New Orleans): These are among the NFL teams I have the least feel for this season. Both lost last week, but the Saints looked inept in defeat.

Tipped and picked for 6! Barton nabs the INT and takes it to the 🏠 for the @Broncos#DENvsNO on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/TsAlV2lxuH

— NFL (@NFL) October 18, 2024

Feeling Good

This group consists of one struggling team and two underdogs, but I feel good about all three walking away with wins in Week 7. I even posted predictions on X in case my picks weren’t published in time.

Miami Dolphins (vs. Arizona): Miami has been playing poorly, but Tua Tagovailoa looks ready to return to action to provide a spark. Arizona comes off a short week after playing on Monday night.

Los Angeles Rams (vs. Minnesota): Chris Long has talked about the Dan Campbell Lions hangover, where the team they play loses the next week. It’s held so far in 2024, and the Vikings played the Lions last week.

Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Green Bay): Jacksonville returns to the US after two weeks in London. They look to make it two straight for the first time this season.

Lawrence to BTJ! @Jaguars are on the board

📺: #NEvsJAX on NFL Network
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/ZwaRwAS5BY

— NFL (@NFL) October 20, 2024

Somebody’s Going to Win

Two bad teams going head-to-head makes it tough to pick a winner. The same applies when inconsistent teams square off. That’s how these three games wound up down here.

New England Patriots (vs. NY Jets): The Jets dominated the Patriots in their first meeting and New England hasn’t shown much to believe in them. Maybe this is wishful thinking, but Drake Maye getting his first win against the Jets would be sweet.

Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Philadelphia): Not sure what to expect from either of these teams in 2024. The Bengals have won two of their last three, and the Eagles are on a two-game winning streak. Cincinnati gets the slight nod with the home-field advantage.

Dallas Cowboys (at San Francisco): Neither team has lived up to expectations in 2024. San Francisco is dealing with injury issues, and the Cowboys have been unpredictable. Maybe their bye after facing Detroit will give them the rest they need to rebound.

After seven weeks, I’m at 65.4% picking winners for the 2024 NFL season. My elite options success rate has improved to 66.7% following consecutive perfect weeks. Let’s hope both percentages continue to rise in Week 8.