NFL Analysis
Dan Kelley’s Week 7 NFL Winners and Survivor Pool Picks

My Week 6 NFL picks finished with a solid 10-4 record. It also got me wondering whether I should continue picking the winners for every game. My five “elite options” went 5-0 for the week. I won 10-of-11 with my most confident picks. Unfortunately, I lost the bottom three picks on the slate to make my Week 6 performance look less dominant than it felt.
One reason for my most confident picks’ success last week is that the lower-tiered teams in the league have become obvious. Betting against teams, instead of betting on teams, has become easier as teams have shown who they are in 2024. Last week’s elite options included betting against the Panthers, Browns, Patriots, and Giants. It’s not going to be successful every week, but certainly more often than not.
My survivor pick of Week 6 was the Falcons beating the Panthers, which they did 38-20. Unfortunately, my survivor picks are only 3-3 this season, so I was bounced back in Week 2.
Heads up football! Clark Phillips puts this game on ice for the @AtlantaFalcons 🧊
📺: #ATLvsCAR on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/XnJSgRaGqC— NFL (@NFL) October 13, 2024
Once again, I am picking the winners for each game. The point spread is not taken into account.
Last Week’s Record: 10-4
2024 Season Record: 59-33
Last Week’s Elite Options Record: 5-0
2024 Elite Options Record: 15-9
Also Read – Week 7 NFL Power Rankings: Top Teams Separating Themselves
Elite Options
Last week, I picked five games as elite options, and they went 5-0. Hopefully, that trend continues in Week 7, though I’m only going with three top-tier picks.
Buffalo Bills (vs. Tennessee): The Bills have once again taken control of the AFC East, and they face an overmatched Titans team at home. This should increase my survivor pool picks to 4-3 on the year.
Washington Commanders (vs. Carolina): Picking against the Panthers will be an elite option every week. I’m still not 100% sold on the Commanders, but I am in Week 7.
Cincinnati Bengals (at Cleveland): I predicted the Browns would have a major downfall this season and they continue to prove me right. A division road game is the only thing making me a bit nervous, but the Bengals should roll.
JOE BURROW OH MY pic.twitter.com/SMldP70GEB
— NFL (@NFL) October 14, 2024
Feeling Great
The top two picks here almost made their way into the elite grouping. I feel good about the chances of the Giants and Patriots losing, but not confident enough to bump them up a tier.
Philadelphia Eagles (at NY Giants): Picking the Eagles and picking against the Giants have each let me down multiple times this season. Philadelphia should win easily, but a road game against a division opponent prevents it from being more confident.
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. New England): The Jaguars have let me down more than most teams this year, including last week. But with no travel to London this week and a game against the Patriots it feels like a solid bet.
Atlanta Falcons (vs. Seattle): These teams are trending in opposite directions. Atlanta’s only loss in the last five weeks was to Kansas City, while Seattle lost three in a row after a 3-0 start.
Baltimore Ravens (at Tampa Bay): The Ravens are playing as well as anyone. Betting against the Buccaneers has not served me well. I’m doing it again, but not as confidently.
Lamar Jackson lead blocking for Derrick Henry is incredible.
📺: #BALvsTB on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/oCXd9YusdH— NFL (@NFL) October 22, 2024
Feeling Good
There are more teams than usual in this tier. Usually, I find myself confident enough to put a game in a higher tier, or it feels arbitrary enough to bump down one. These five games all feel like “good, but not great” for various reasons.
Los Angeles Rams (vs. Las Vegas): The Raiders are no good, but the Rams are 1-4 and playing at home. Los Angeles has been a disappointment so far, but they should win this one.
New Orleans Saints (vs. Denver): If the Broncos win this week I’ll stop picking against them so consistently. The Saints are shorthanded but should have enough to win at home on a short week.
Indianapolis Colts (vs. Miami): The Dolphins don’t seem that interested in winning. They beat the Patriots 15-10, but that seemingly had more to do with the opponent.
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. NY Jets): New York added Devante Adams, which should improve things for their offense. But the bottom line is their team is not playing well and I can’t see them picking up a road win over a playoff-caliber Steelers team.
Los Angeles Chargers (at Arizona): This is another pair of teams I struggle picking every week. The Chargers are coming off a win over the Broncos, while the Cardinals have lost three of four.
.@Chargers rookie RB Kimani Vidal's first touch in the NFL is a 38-yard TD catch!
📺: #LACvsDEN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/WEwr9AE9iW— NFL (@NFL) October 13, 2024
Somebody’s Going to Win
Hopefully, this week’s coin-flip picks work in my favor, unlike last week. I’m taking the three teams that I think are the better teams and not overthinking it.
Detroit Lions (at Minnesota): The Vikings are one of only two undefeated teams remaining, but the Lions have been dominant. I’d feel better about being wrong if I was wrong picking Detroit.
Houston Texans (at Green Bay): Houston hitting the road against a good team gave me pause, but the Texans are looking to prove themselves to be a true title contender.
Kansas City Chiefs (at San Francisco): Regardless of injuries, the 49ers are better than their 3-3 and are coming off a win against the Seahawks and playing at home. But betting against the Chiefs feels like bad business.
After six weeks, I have a 64.1% picking winners for the 2024 NFL season. My elite options success rate has improved to 62.5% after a slow start. Let’s hope both percentages continue to rise in Week 7.