Dan Kelley’s Week 5 NFL Winners and Survivor Pool Picks

My Week 4 NFL picks finished with a 9-7 record. However, the final total is a bit deceiving. My top three picks of the week all won. The six best bets of the week went 5-1, and the top eight went 6-2. The “winners” I felt least confident in proved to be for a good reason, making the final record closer to .500 than it felt like.

The only “elite option” loss in Week 4 was the Jets dropping a home game to the Broncos by a final score of 10-9. It took three weeks to accept that the Minnesota Vikings were much better than I thought and pick them in Week 4. Is it time to stop underrating teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Commanders? Should I stop picking the Jacksonville Jaguars to win?

The kick is NO GOOD with 47 seconds to go.

📺: #DENvsNYJ on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/rzeHYEy8oc

— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2024

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins were among those who let me down by looking awful. The Eagles have a bye this week, but I’m going against the Dolphins until further notice, even if they are playing against the 1-3 New England Patriots.

Once again, I am picking the winners for each game. The point spread is not taken into account.

Last Week’s Record: 9-7
2024 Season Record: 39-25

Last Week’s Elite Options Record: 3-1
2024 Elite Options Record: 8-7

Also Read – Week 5 NFL Power Rankings: Vikings Look Legit at 3-0

Elite Options

After two weeks of going 1-3 with these supposed elite options, only a missed field goal by the Jets cost me going 4-0 last in Week 4. Hopefully, it’s a sign of good things to come.

San Francisco 49ers (vs Arizona) – The 49ers manhandled the Patriots on Sunday, while the Cardinals got trounced by the Commanders. No reason to believe either team will suddenly head in the opposite direction, though I don’t love taking a division rivalry game as the pick of the week.

Seattle Seahawks (vs NY Giants) – Seattle lost a tough one on Monday Night Football to Detroit. They will look to rebound at home against an inferior opponent in the Giants. New York will likely be without star rookie receiver Malik Nabers (concussion).

Kansas City Chiefs (vs New Orleans) – The Chiefs haven’t won as dominantly as some expected, and Rashee Rice is heading to injured reserve. But Kansas City at home still feels like a safe bet until somebody can beat them this season.

Chicago Bears (vs Carolina) – The Panthers pulled off an upset in Week 3 with Andy Dalton starting his first game. But that doesn’t make them a team unworthy to pick against. Chicago at home gets the nod here.

.@CALEBcsw's HYPED pic.twitter.com/iyRvB3d7aM

— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) September 29, 2024

Feeling Great

This group went 2-1 last week, with the lone loss being the Philadelphia Eagles going down to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Will it stop me from going against Tampa Bay in Week 5? Nah.

Atlanta Falcons (vs Tampa Bay) – If the Buccaneers win this week, I’ll finally accept they are much better than I believed. But the Falcons at home on Thursday Night Football should have a loud crowd and make some noise.

Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Indianapolis) – Picking an 0-4 team to win feels like a bad bet. That said, there is no way that the team I picked to win the AFC South is going to start 0-5. Will they?

Minnesota Vikings (vs NY Jets) – Sunday morning’s game in London will have to end in a Jets loss. That way they can make a move for Davante Adams as soon as they return to the United States. The Vikings move to an improbable 5-0 start.

Still Griddy szn

📺: #MINvsGB on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/YzCDZOTZzd

— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2024

Feeling Good

The bottom picks on my list are where I dropped off last week. Maybe these four can help change that in Week 5.

Dallas Cowboys (at Pittsburgh) – Bringing back a rivalry from the 1970s on Sunday Night Football. I still believe the Dallas Cowboys are a better football team than the Pittsburgh Steelers. Can they prove me right?

Baltimore Ravens (at Cincinnati) – Baltimore looked great against Buffalo last week. But a road game against a division rival coming off their first win still feels risky. I still like Baltimore, just not enough to move them up.

New England Patriots (vs Miami) – The way Miami has looked since Tua Tagovailoa getting injured would make almost any team a confident winner against them. Unfortunately for the Patriots, they haven’t been looking good either and are facing injury issues of their own. But Jerod Mayo is due for another Gatorade shower.

Somebody’s Going to Win

The bottom tier is the games somebody will win, but who that will be feels only slightly better than 50-50 to me. Only a handful of games here this week, as the NFL enters the first bye week of 2024.

Denver Broncos (vs Las Vegas) – Neither team is very good, but the Broncos have shown they can figure out how to win, starting 2-2. It feels like the Raiders could catch them in a letdown game. Denver is not good enough to take anyone lightly. The bet here is that Sean Payton won’t allow that to happen.

Houston Texans (vs Buffalo) – The Texans are home underdogs, but they are still a quality team. Both of these teams looked better than they showed last weekend (though Houston still pulled out a win). They could do it again in what should be a great game.

Los Angeles Rams (at Green Bay) – These are two of the teams in the NFL I have the least feel for. The Rams are home underdogs, so I like their chances despite their injury issues. That said, there is a reason this pick is on the bottom.

7th straight game with a TD for @Kyrenwilliams23!

📺: #LARvsCHI on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/sO5y0jmtGR

— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2024

After four weeks I’m sporting a 60.9 winning percentage on my picks. I expect to see that on the rise with this week’s 14 winners.