NFL Analysis
Dan Kelley’s Week 4 NFL Winners and Survivor Pool Picks
My Week 3 NFL picks got me headed in the right direction once again. I rebounded from a 6-10 Week 2 to go 10-6 last weekend. However, my “elite options” won just one of four games for the second week in a row. The more confident I was, the worse the results seemed to be. This week’s predictions will hopefully have more success from top to bottom.
Why did those elite options fail me for the second week in a row? I felt certain the Cincinnati Bengals would not start the season 0-3, with Joe Burrow losing to his fellow Heisman Trophy winner from LSU, rookie Jayden Daniels. But the Washington Commanders prevailed on Monday Night Football behind an outstanding performance from Daniels. For the second week in a row, my most confident pick lost.
A play @Commanders fans won't soon forget 🔥 @JayD__5 pic.twitter.com/D3Peb5A6sK
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) September 24, 2024
The others letting me down most last week were the Raiders (losing to the Panthers) and Browns (falling to the Giants). This was a good reminder: Don’t get overconfident about a team that isn’t very good, no matter who they are playing.
Once again, I am picking the winners for each game. The point spread is not taken into account.
Last Week’s Record: 10-6
2024 Season Record: 30-18
Last Week’s Elite Options Record: 1-3 (not great)
2024 Elite Options Record: 5-6 (not great)
Also Read – Week 4 NFL Power Rankings: Vikings Look Legit at 3-0
Elite Options
I considered removing this category after going 2-6 over the past two weeks with my elite options. But the only way to improve the record is to play the game.
Cincinnati Bengals (at Carolina) – The Bengals lost as my top option a week ago. So, why would I pick an 0-3 team playing on the road as my top pick for Week 4? Because the Carolina Panthers winning two in a row seems so unlikely.
Dallas Cowboys (at NY Giants) – Dallas has gotten blown out twice in a row. I need to stop picking struggling teams to win. But the talent discrepancy between the Cowboys. and Giants is too great to pass up here.
San Francisco 49ers (vs New England) – Hopefully, the ten days between games gave New England time to regroup. But San Francisco is at home, looking to prove something after losing two straight. This would be a far greater upset than Week 1.
New York Jets (vs Denver) – This has less to do with the Jets than it does with the Broncos. Both teams looked great in Week 3, but the Broncos having consecutive excellent outings seems far-fetched.
ALLEN LAZARD TOUCHDOWN❕❕❕#NEvsNYJ on @NFLonPrime pic.twitter.com/zihdOnQkrF
— New York Jets (@nyjets) September 20, 2024
Feeling Great
Great might be an overstatement, but comparatively speaking, these are in my next tier of selections.
Kansas City Chiefs (at LA Chargers) – A road game against a division rival is always a risk. That said, the Chiefs haven’t looked great, yet are still the best team in football. With Justin Herbert less than 100% it is a big ask for the Chargers to pull this one off.
Detroit Lions (vs Seattle) – The Seahawks are 3-0 and playing great. I remain high on Detroit (my preseason pick to win the NFC) and think they’ll be up to the challenge at home. Sam LaPorta needs to get healthy and get more involved in the Lions offense.
Philadelphia Eagles (at Tampa Bay) – Philadelphia can make a statement with a road win in Tampa Bay. The Eagles could easily be undefeated at this point, while the Buccaneers just got embarrassed by the Broncos. Saquan Barkley is a standout stud of the season so far.
SAQUON BARKLEY 65-YARD TOUCHDOWN.
📺: #PHIvsNO on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/830L0j9R8o— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
Feeling Good
Three picks feel better than a coin flip for Week 4.
Atlanta Falcons (at New Orleans) – Division rivalry between two evenly matched teams. The home team gets the advantage. This is especially true with Alvin Kamara dealing with injury issues.
Miami Dolphins (vs Tennessee) – Feeling good about betting on Tyler Huntley? That feels like an overstatement. But Miami needs to wake up after the Tua Tagovailoa injury and get back to playing good football. The Titans are a good opponent for such an occasion.
Arizona Cardinals (vs Washington) – Two of the Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates meet. Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and Commanders QB Jayden Daniels will both look to make a statement. Harrison should get the final word today.
Marvin Harrison Jr. we love you pic.twitter.com/GE6a9vVabw
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) September 15, 2024
Somebody’s Going to Win
The bottom tier is the games somebody will win, but who that will be feels only slightly better than 50-50 to me. This group is more full than usual this week.
Baltimore Ravens (vs Buffalo) – The Bills are No. 2 on the NFL Power Rankings and playing great. Josh Allen was my pick for the 2024 NFL MVP and he takes on the 2023 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson. But this week, Derrick Henry could be the most valuable player on the field.
Indianapolis Colts (vs Pittsburgh) – If Anthony Richardson is careless with the ball, this pick will look awful. Pittsburgh’s defense has played great, and the Colts are mistake-prone on offense. But I like Indianapolis’ chances to prevent a 4-0 Steelers start.
Los Angeles Rams (at Chicago) – It feels like a huge week for the Bears to stop the downward trajectory. That is a lot of pressure for a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams. Can the Rams still move the ball with their offensive injuries?
Minnesota Vikings (at Green Bay) – At some point, I need to accept this Vikings team is special and stop picking against them. That week is here. If they lose, I need to make sure Minnesota fans don’t come after me.
Jacksonville Jaguars (at Houston) – Why can’t I just accept that the Jaguars might not be as good as I thought they were? A loss to fall to 0-4 might cost Doug Pederson his job. Upset pick, but feels right.
Cleveland Browns (at Las Vegas) – I don’t think either of these teams is very good. I feel especially bad picking a lousy team on the road. But here were are, somebody has to win. I’m betting it’s not going to be the team that just lost to the Carolina Panthers.
What a throw by @andydalton14! What a catch by @athielen19!
📺: #CARvsLV on CBS/Paramount
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/9kJOeUA22e— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
Hopefully, it will be a strong rebound from Week 2 for this week’s NFL selections. If not, folks might want to start going against my picks moving forward.
