Dan Kelley’s Week 3 NFL Winners and Survivor Pool Picks

As obvious as some NFL results may seem in advance, nobody knows for sure until the games are played. Even folks who believe they’ve figured it all out one week can be quickly humbled the next. Look no further than this scribe for proof.

After a 14-2 start to the season in Week 1, I couldn’t even muster a winning record in Week 2. Now, it is up to this week’s selections to prove that the opening week was no fluke, something a few NFL teams, including the New England Patriots, are attempting to do themselves. Despite last week’s setback, I will continue to pick every NFL game every week. I will continue to put these predictions into tiers for people playing in knockout/survivor pools.

And yes, the Baltimore Ravens losing to the Las Vegas Raiders did eliminate me last week.

The final play in Baltimore. @Raiders hang on for the win. #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/vK9u3IB9cT

— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024

I am picking the winners for each game. The spread is not taken into account at all here.

Last Week’s Record: 6-10
2024 Season Record: 20-12

Last Week’s Elite Options Record: 1-3 (ouch)
2024 Elite Options Record: 4-3

Also Read – Week 3 NFL Power Rankings: Nine Teams Remain Unbeaten

Elite Options

Admittedly, my confidence is a bit shaken after Week 2’s debacle. I came close to picking fewer “elite options” for this week but ultimately these four games all felt like winners.

Cincinnati Bengals (vs Washington) – Cincinnati starting 0-3 seems far-fetched. They are at home against a team they have more talent than, and Tee Higgins should be back in the lineup for the Bengals. Having a winless team as the best bet is a bit risky but I’m willing to lock it in.

Las Vegas Raiders (vs Carolina) – Nearly anyone playing the Panthers should be the best bet. But Andy Dalton could have a resurgence game is his first start for Carolina. Las Vegas also hasn’t shown they are very good themselves. But beating the Panthers at home should be a safe bet for the Raiders.

Kansas City Chiefs (at Atlanta) – The Falcons are coming off a big win, while the Chiefs have eeked out two games and are on the road. But I’m counting on Kansas City to roll in Atlanta.

Cleveland Browns (vs New York Giants) – Similar to the Raiders pick, this is more about the opponent than the Browns. If not for the Panthers, the Giants would be the lowest team on the NFL Power Rankings. Once again, going against New York is a smart bet until they prove otherwise.

first takeaway of the year 😤

📺 #NYGvsWAS FOX pic.twitter.com/evyHaNqFOw

— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) September 15, 2024

Feeling Great

Again, last week doesn’t have me feeling great about much this week. But these three games seem solid, despite self-doubt creeping in.

Detroit Lions (at Arizona) – Both of these teams cost me wins last week, with Detroit losing to Tampa Bay and Arizona destroying the Rams. But even on the road, I like the Lions’ chances of rebounding this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Denver) – Am I sold on the 2-0 Buccaneers’ ability to keep winning? Not really. But the Denver Broncos have looked closer to a team fighting for a top-five pick than a playoff spot so far.

Houston Texans (at Minnesota) – The Texans are playing excellent and were my only “elite option” to win in Week 2. It was tempting to list them higher here, but the Vikings look almost like a team of destiny in the early going. Houston should prevail just the same.

.@CJ7STROUD had some words of encouragement for @CALEBcsw.

"You're gonna be a hell of a player in this league." 🤝 pic.twitter.com/EkGCMOl0ew

— NFL (@NFL) September 17, 2024

Feeling Good

A few of these would have been ranked in a higher tier if I had my mojo back. But for now, these are all solid bets, if nothing more. Going 5-0 in this group wouldn’t be surprising (though nothing would be at this point).

San Francisco 49ers (at LA Rams) – A road game against a divisional opponent scares me a. bit. Any games against division opponents do for that matter. The Rams might be underrated after getting blown out by Arizona, but unlikely they bounce back enough to beat a 49ers team coming off a loss of their own.

Buffalo Bills (vs Jacksonville) – Buffalo is playing very well and Josh Allen looks like the NFL MVP he was predicted to be here. However, a loss for the Jaguars puts them at 0-3 on the season. That is tough to accept for a team I’d projected to win the AFC South. Just the same, as evidence changes, so must the conclusions.

Philadelphia Eagles (at New Orleans) – The Saints shut up a lot of people with their Week 2 domination of the Dallas Cowboys. Was it enough to win me over? Not against an Eagles team with something to prove after dropping their Monday Night Football matchup with the Atlanta Falcons.

Seattle Seahawks (vs Miami) – Tua Tagovailoa is out for the Dolphins. The Seahawks are at home and looked good against the Patriots in Week 2 (though it is tough to tell how much that means). Skylar Thompson needs to show something before picking Miami makes sense against a decent Seattle team.

Indianapolis Colts (vs Chicago) – Rookie Caleb Williams lost to second-year QB C.J. Stroud in Week 2. Another 2024 pick, Anthony Richardson, takes on Chicago in Week 3. The results should be the same, with the Colts prevailing.

Somebody’s Going to Win

The bottom tier is the games somebody has to win, but who that will be doesn’t feel much better than a coin flip to me.

Green Bay Packers (at Tennessee) – Malik Williams returns to Tennessee to take on the Titans. This feels like the epitome of a game where anything could happen. After picking against the Jordan Love-less Packers in Week 2, I’m going with the better team to win in Week 3.

Baltimore Ravens (at Dallas) – If both of these teams had won last week, Dallas would probably be the pick here. But Baltimore is too good to start the season 0-3, and Dallas looked awful against New Orleans. Are the Saints just that good? I’m not sold that’s the case. It should be a tough battle.

Pittsburgh Steelers (vs LA Chargers) – These teams are both undefeated, which makes it tough to pick against either one. But they are also not dominant teams, which makes it tough to feel great about picking either to start the season 3-0. But somebody will, so the guess here is that it will be the home team.

Hard to imagine a better start to the season for the Steelers going 2-0 and the rest of the division struggling. pic.twitter.com/aLX17xiMQO

— Steelers Now (@PghSteelersNow) September 16, 2024

New York Jets (vs New England) – I still have no idea what either of these teams is made of. The Patriots have owned the Jets for years, but that was with Bill Belichick and without Aaron Rodgers. Division rivalries are always tough to call, so I’ll go with the home team, reluctantly.

Hopefully, it will be a strong rebound from Week 2 for this week’s NFL selections. If not, folks might want to start going against my picks moving forward.