NFL Draft
Best and Worst Case Scenarios for the Patriots 2024 Draft Class
While some publications want to jump to handing out grades for NFL draft picks, Patriots Football Now chose to analyze the logic and method behind the picks. The reality is that nobody knows how good any of these picks will turn out at this point. While it would be great for New England if Drake Maye, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Caeden Wallace became the second coming of Tom Brady, Jerry Rice, and Anthony Munoz, it seems a bit unrealistic. Maybe more than a bit.
There is a range of outcomes for every pick in every draft. To find that range for the New England Patriots 2024 NFL Draft class, below are the best and worst case scenarios for each selection. The scenarios are based on prospects selected in that same draft spot who play the same position. The Patriots’ picks could redefine what “best” and “worst” look like someday. For now, these options are based on the existing data.
QB Drake Maye, North Carolina (Round 1, No. 3)
Best Case: Matt Ryan. The Atlanta Falcons selected Ryan third overall in the 2008 NFL Draft out of Boston College. He was named Offensive Rookie of the Year that season and won NFL MVP in 2016. He led the Falcons to the Super Bowl in his MVP season. The four-time Pro Bowl selection ranks seventh in career passing yards and ninth in passing touchdowns.
Worst Case: Akili Smith. Like Maye, Smith was the third quarterback selected in his draft year. After Tim Couch and Donovan McNabb went 1-2 to begin the 1999 NFL Draft, the Cincinnati Bengals took Akili Smith third. He lasted only four seasons in the NFL, compiling a 3-14 record as a starter. He threw five touchdowns and 13 interceptions in his 22 games played.
Read More: Dan Kelley’s New England Patriots 2024 NFL Draft Report Card
WR Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington (Round 2, No. 37)
Best Case: Chris Collinsworth. Many know Collinsworth for his broadcasting work. However, long before getting in the booth, Collinsworth was a very productive receiver. He made the Pro Bowl each of his first three NFL seasons. He nearly recorded six consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to begin his career as well. The Cincinnati Bengal fell short due to a strike in 1982 (he was on pace for 1,244) and missing a game in 1984 (he fell 11 yards short).
Worst Case: Devin Smith. The New York Jets picked Smith in Round 2 of the 2015 NFL Draft. Smith suffered multiple serious injuries, derailing his promising career. He made multiple valiant comebacks, but ultimately appeared in only 22 games in four seasons, over seven years. The New England Patriots hope health in on their side for all eight selections.
OT Caeden Wallace, Penn State (Round 3, No. 68)
Best Case: Claudie Minor. The Broncos took Claude Minor at No. 68 overall in the 1974 draft out of San Diego State. The tackle spent his entire nine-year NFL career in Denver. Although he was never a Pro Bowl selection, he was a reliable starter for the Broncos. Minor started 98 consecutive games to begin his career. He played in 125 games overall, including 123 starts.
Worst Case: Randy Van Divier. The Baltimore Colts took Van Divier at No. 68 in the 1981 NFL Draft. He appeared in all 16 games as a rookie. He never played another NFL game after 1981. The Colts cut Van Divier before the 1982 season. After failing to secure a spot on another NFL roster he resurfaced with the Oakland Invaders of the USFL in 1984. Van Divier broke his leg during the 1985 preseason with the Oakland Raiders. He did not play football again.
OL Layden Robinson, Texas A&M (Round 4, No. 103)
Best Case: Claude Laaveg. Washington drafted Laaveg in 1970 out of Iowa, the first NFL Draft after the merger. He played six seasons, all with one franchise. Laaveg appeared in 72 games for Washington, starting 53. Although he had no Pro Bowl selections, six seasons, four as a starter, is as good as it gets here.
Worst Case: Arland Thompson. The Chicago Bears drafted Thompson in 1980 but he never played for them. He played 14 games over three seasons for the Broncos, Packers, and Colts. He came back to cross the picket line during the 1987 strike, playing three games for the Kansas City Chiefs.
WR Javon Baker, UCF (Round 4, No. 110)
Best Case: Wallace Francis. He began his career with the Buffalo Bills in 1973. Francis was used exclusively as a kickoff returner his two seasons with the Bills, returning two kickoffs for touchdowns in his rookie year. He joined Atlanta in 1975 and played his final seven seasons for the Falcons. Francis shows off his receiving ability there. He finished with 244 receptions for 3,695 yards and 27 touchdowns. He had a 1,000-yard season in 1979.
Worst Case: Erik Affholter. Another wide receiver who was unable to stay healthy. Washington drafted Affholter and then traded him to Green Bay (with picks) for quarterback Jeff Graham. Affholter broke his ankle playing pickup basketball before ever playing a game. He returned to play four games for Green Bay in 1991, his only NFL action. He retired in 1995 having suffered a knee injury.
CB Marcellas Dial Jr., South Carolina (Round 6, No. 180)
Best Case: Mario Edwards. He began his career with the Cowboys, who drafted him out of Florida State in 2000. He remained in Dallas for his first four seasons before finishing with one year in Tampa Bay. Edwards played in 73 games, starting 50. He intercepted four passes and returned two for touchdowns.
Worst Case: Henry Monroe. He began his career in 1979 with Green Bay, playing three games. He finished the season playing three games for Philadelphia. Monroe attempted a comeback after sitting out the 1980 season, but was cut by the Eagles in preseason of 1981. He finished his NFL career with six games played.
QB Joe Milton III, Tennessee (Round 6, No. 193)
Best Case: Jim Sorgi. If the New England Patriots had taken Milton at No. 199, the best case would have been Tom Brady. At No. 193 the top quarterback taken was Jim Sorgi. The Indianapolis Colts drafted the Wisconsin QB in the 2004 NFL Draft. He served as Peyton Manning’s backup for six seasons, the extent of his NFL career. He won a Super Bowl with the 2006 Colts. Sorgi finished with an impressive 6-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. However, his career total were six touchdowns and one interception total. Sorgi appeared in 16 games for Indianapolis with no starts.
Worst Case: Reggie McNeal. The Cincinnati Bengals selected the Texas A&M product in 2006. They converted the college quarterback to wide receiver due to his impressive speed. McNeal appeared in seven games as a rookie. His only offensive statistic was an eight-yard run, picked up on a scramble while lined up at QB. He was released after the season and did not play in the NFL again. McNeal then played five seasons in the Canadian Football League before retiring due to a back injury.
TE Jaheim Bell, Florida State (Round 7, No. 231)
Best Case: Thomas Duarte. After a college career at UCLA, Duarte was taken by the Miami Dolphins in the 2016 NFL Draft. He appeared in one game as a rookie, playing only two snaps. It was his lone NFL action. He later was a practice squad or offseason member of the Chargers, Panthers, and Falcons. He did not play in the NFL again.
Worst Case: Thomas Duarte. He’s the only tight end before Bell to be taken at No. 231. How else could a player with two career snaps be the best-case scenario?
New England Patriots Best Case Scenario
QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (2008)
WR Chris Collinsworth, Cincinnati Bengals (1981)
OT Claudie Minor, Denver Broncos (1974)
OG Paul Laaveg, Washington (1970)
WR Wallace Francis, Buffalo Bills (1973)
CB Mario Edwards, Dallas Cowboys (1991)
QB Jim Sorgi, Indianapolis Colts (2004)
TE Thomas Duarte, Miami Dolphins (2016)
New England Patriots Worst Case Scenario
QB Akili Smith, Cincinnati Bengals (1999)
WR Devin Smith, New York Jets (2015)
OT Randy Van Divier, Baltimore Colts (1981)
OG Arland Thompson, Chicago Bears (1980)
WR Erik Affholter, Washington (1989)
CB Henry Monroe, Green Bay Packers (1979)
QB Reggie McNeal, Cincinnati Bengals (2006)
TE Thomas Duarte, Miami Dolphins (2016)
Despite these scenarios, the New England Patriots hope their 2024 NFL Draft class will set a new standard for best-case scenarios at these selections. Perhaps they got the next Tom Brady, Jerry Rice, Anthony Munoz, John Hannah, Randy Moss, Deion Sanders, Joe Montana, and Rob Gronkowski. Time will tell. Stay tuned.