Kelley: Patriots Shouldn’t Trade a First for Brandon Aiyuk

The New England Patriots tried to sign wide receiver Calvin Ridley in free agency earlier this offseason. Ultimately Ridley left the Jacksonville Jaguars to join the Tennessee Titans instead of coming north. Rumors linked New England to potential trades for other playmaking receivers, including the Cincinnati Bengals’ Tee Higgins, who was unhappy with receiving a franchise tag. Brandon Aiyuk of the San Francisco 49ers is currently the hottest rumor trade target.

The Patriots adding a player of Aiyuk’s stature is certainly tempting. He’s an incredible player and would immediately help “weaponize” New England’s offense. However, any talk of trading a first-round pick to acquire Aiyuk needs to be quashed immediately. This is not Tom Brady’s Patriots, where adding an incredible weapon could be the difference in whether the team wins a Super Bowl. Those same teams trading a first-round pick would risk giving up a pick at the end of Round 1.

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The current edition of the New England Patriots is far from championship contention, with out without Brandon Aiyuk. Furthermore, it is reasonable to assume the Patriots’ 2025 first-round pick could be a top-five selection. Eliot Wolf parting ways with that type of draft capital to acquire a receiver, even an excellent one, is bad business.

“The Packer Way”

Eliot Wolf wants to bring “The Packer Way” to New England. This way of doing business in Green Bay while his father Ron Wolf was running the show consists of three basic parts. The team must draft, develop, and extend core players from within. Passing up the opportunity to draft a cornerstone player, and have them on a rookie contract, goes against the very premise Eliot Wolf is attempting to implement in New England.

In the 2024 NFL Draft there were three wide receivers selected in the first nine picks. Granted, receivers like Marvin Harrison Jr. (No. 4, Cardinals), Malik Nabers (No. 6, Giants), and Rome Odunze (No. 9, Bears) won’t be available in every year. But even if the Patriots far exceeded expectations in 2024, they’re still likely drafting in the top 10 of the 2025 draft.

With the draft capital for wherever New England ends up in the 2025 NFL Draft, they are in an excellent position to draft a potential franchise player and retain their services for the years on a rookie contract. Or, already having Drake Maye as their quarterback of the future, they can trade the pick to a team trying to move up and select a quarterback for an attractive package of players and/or picks.

As good as Brandon Aiyuk is, it is hard to envision the Patriots not getting more bang for their buck simply by staying put.

Contract Concerns for Aiyuk

Acquiring Brandon Aiyuk would be a two-part process. First, the trading team must put together an attractive enough offer to make it worthwhile for San Francisco. Second, they need to come to a contract agreement with Aiyuk.

Brandon Aiyuk is excellent. A team trading for him is getting a certified stud receiver. Aiyuk recorded 1,000-yard seasons in the past two years. He caught 78 passes for 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns in 2022. He followed that up with 75 receptions for 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns in 2023.

Aiyuk is one of ten NFL wide receivers with 150 receptions, 2,000 yards, and 15 touchdowns over the past two seasons. Pro Football Focus gave Brandon Aiyuk a grade of 91.5 last season. This ranked second among all NFL wide receivers, trailing only Miami’s Tyreek Hill.

PURDY TO AIYUK. 76-YARD TOUCHDOWN.

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— NFL (@NFL) November 19, 2023

In other words, Aiyuk is a proven commodity. He deserves to be paid like a top receiver because he has proven he is one of them. But after several signings by star wide receivers this offseason that price tag is going to be in the neighborhood of $30 million annually. If Aiyuk was a free agent and it was simply about money, New England could afford that. However, that contract coupled with giving up a Round 1 selection is simply too much.

Potential Trade Proposal

The San Francisco 49ers reportedly are uninterested in trading Brandon Aiyuk. However, they also appear unwilling to meet his contract demands. The 49ers might be willing to let the situation play out since they are a legit Super Bowl contender and don’t want to lose a player of such magnitude with nothing to show for it in 2024. However, if they are willing to make a deal, the Patriots can make a solid offer.

San Francisco receives: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, 2025 second-round pick; 2025 fifth-round pick

New England receives: WR Brandon Aiyuk; 2025 sixth-round pick

In this scenario, New England gives San Francisco as attractive of a non-Round 1 pick as they could hope for. The 49ers also get back a legit NFL wide receiver in Smith-Schuster. They move from (likely) the end of Round 6 to the front of Round 5 too. Some pundits have teams giving up a first-round pick and a promising, young wide receiver to obtain Aiyuk. If that deal was on the table, the 49ers would have already accepted it.

The 2024 NFL season kicks off in just over a month. The New England Patriots would benefit from an explosive offensive weapon like Brandon Aiyuk. But the long-term benefit of holding on to their 2025 first-round pick outweighs Aiyuk’s addition. Eliot Wolf figuring out a way to add Aiyuk without parting ways with that selection is ideal. If that can’t be done, Brandon Aiyuk can play elsewhere this season.