NFL Week 1 Early Lines

The NFL Week 1 early lines are out, and a bettor can find value in the early lines market before training camp starts. Playing these lines now can also be a little dangerous as a lot can happen before the 2024 NFL season kicks off in September.

I live for danger.

Here are three bets I’m making in the NFL Week 1 early lines market. 

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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+1.5)

Houston Texans CJ Stroud played brilliantly his rookie year, tossing the rock for 4,108 yards and 23 TDs. Stroud also led a team projected as an AFC bottom-feeder to the playoffs and won a playoff game. 

Texans fans and backers expect the 2024 team to establish its dominance in a so-so AFC South. They have the weapons with WRs Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins. Adding RB Joe Mixon will give the Texans a more dynamic running attack. 

Yet, the Indianapolis Colts were a borderline playoff team in 2023. 

They won nine games without their sublimely talented rookie QB Anthony Richardson. 

Now Richardson is healthy, and the Colts’ offense with WR Michael Pittman Jr. and RB Jonathan Taylor is ready to take the next step. 

Take the home division dogs on the spread and sprinkle the +102 moneyline. 

Tennessee Titans (+4.5) at Chicago Bears 

Chicago Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams is the headline. Many believe the Heisman winner will find immediate NFL success. He’s certainly set up for it. 

An aggressive offseason by the front office saw the acquisitions of veteran WR Keenan Allen, TE Gerald Everett, and RB D’Andre Swift. The Bears also return a defense that ranked first against the run and first in interceptions. 

The Tennessee Titans are a team in transition. The team fired HC and former New England Patriots player Mike Vrabel after a 6-11 2023 season. Franchise stalwart RB Derrick Henry is now a Baltimore Raven. 

New HC Brian Callahan most recently served as Cincinnati Bengals OC. The hope is that he can mold second-year QB Will Levis into a franchise player. If Levis underperforms, veteran QB Mason Rudolph can provide steady QB play. Rudolph led the Pittsburgh Steelers to an improbable 2023 playoff birth.

The Titans are in transition, but they’re not in rebuilding mode. They added veteran free-agent WRs Tyler Boyd and Calvin Ridley. They also filled the Henry void with two-time 1,000-yard rusher Tony Pollard. 

Chicago is the darling of the talking heads, but I have the Titans as a darkhorse AFC South contender. Anything favoring the Bears over a field goal is too much in Week 1. 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

Both teams enter the 2024 season with new quarterbacks. Atlanta has the edge at the position. Sure, Kirk Cousins’ play could fall off a cliff. He’s 36 and he’s coming off an Achilles tear, but the Falcons have dynamic skill position players like RB Bijan Robinson. 

New Falcons Head Coach Raheem Morris brought LA Rams passing game coordinator Zac Robinson to serve as OC. Atlanta will run a modern offense with three-receiver sets on the fast track of Mercedes-Benz Stadium. 

The Steelers want to play like it’s 1975.

The team addressed its poor 2023 offensive performance by adding QBs Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Both Wilson and Fields are huge question marks.

Pittsburgh traded WR Dionte Johnson, leaving a gaping hole in the WR depth chart. They also brought in Arthur Smith as OC, known for his belligerent rushing attack.

The Steelers want LB TJ Watt to sack the QB and create chaos. They want a power-running offense with RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Pittsburgh’s philosophy will keep them in close games, but they’ll struggle to score points. 

Give me the home favorite here by less than a field goal.