Week 1 NFL Totals

Through the first nine weeks of the 2023 NFL season, 61.5% of games went under the total. You would’ve made a nice profit blindly betting every NFL game to go under. 

A quick look at the Week 1 NFL totals doesn’t show a game below the 40-point threshold. 

That’s good news for you if you’re a totals bettor. 

Why? Because it looks like the sportsbooks are trying to bait casual bettors, knowing these “public” players love betting overs. It’s simple psychology: NFL fans love points. 

NFL fans also love free money. Create an account with DraftKings Sportsbook to receive $150 in bonus bets after placing an initial $5 wager. 

Don’t take the bait. With a now 17-game season, NFL teams rarely use their starters during the preseason, and offenses take time to find a rhythm if they ever do. Quarterback play is also at its lowest ebb since the pre-Tom Brady-era NFL. 

Now’s the time to strike. Here are two Week 1 NFL totals I’m playing. 

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (43.5 DraftKings)

New Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh has created a ton of buzz around this year’s Chargers team. Yes, Chargers QB Justin Herbert is one of the league’s best. But this is a team and an offense undergoing a major rebuild. 

The Chargers released WR 1 Mike Williams and lost RB Austin Ekeler to the Washington Commanders. They’re entering the season with Joshua Palmer, DJ Chark Jr., and Ladd McConkey as their starting three receivers. 

Palmer and Chark Jr. combined for 1,106 receiving yards and seven TD receptions in 2023. McConkey is a rookie second-round pick. 

The Raiders are, well, the Raiders. They have a tough defense led by DE Maxx Crosby that allowed 19.5 points per game in 2023, seventh in the NFL. 

WR Davonte Adams is elite, but the QBs throwing him the ball aren’t. Gardner Minshew II and Aiden O’Connell have yet to prove themselves as anything but backup-level players at the position.

43.5 is way too high for this game. 

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (43.5 BetMGM)

I know Bears fans are excited for rookie QB Caleb Williams. Chicago surrounded him with talent on both sides of the ball, and folks think this team is ready to take off. 

Heck, BetMGM has the Bears at even money (-110) to make the playoffs when they play in a division with the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. 

The Chicago Bears have a chance to be good in a hurry. Williams will throw the ball to three elite WRs: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze. However, Williams is a rookie and will experience growing pains throughout the early weeks. 

The Tennessee Titans, a team I think will be better than most expect (I think +750 to win the AFC South is great value), isn’t an offensive powerhouse. 

QB Will Levis has the physical specs and the tools but needs to take a step forward. WRs Tyler Boyd, Calvin Ridley, and DeAndre Hopkins must turn the clock back five years.

Look for both teams to start slow, with minimal first-half scoring. 

This game has 17-10 written all over it.

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