Three-Round 2024 NFL Mock Draft; Throwback Edition

The number of hours people like myself spend evaluating prospects for the NFL Draft is borderline bizarre, even if it is a job. Sometimes I’m left wondering if it’s worth it. Even the NFL executives who are paid big money to study such things seem to be wrong more often than not. Is there an easy way to find a formula that will clear up my calendar?

MLB, NBA, and NHL prospects are all eligible to be drafted while still teenagers. Only two NFL prospects were ever drafted as teenagers (Amobi Okoye and Tremaine Edmunds) though both turned 20 before their first game. For some of the 2024 NFL Draft prospects, high school was six years ago. But has ranking these players changed significantly since their high school years? That’s what I decided to test.

The Hypothesis

Success rates in the NFL based on a prospect’s high school rating will prove to be just as successful as their actual NFL Draft rating.

Testing Method

I recruited general managers on X to represent each NFL franchise. Since there were a lot of volunteers (thank you to everybody once again!) most teams had two or three people in their draft room. A three-round 2024 NFL Mock Draft was conducted with the actual draft order. The only information GMs could base their decisions on was the team’s draft needs and the draft board they were given.

NFL Draft Board

Each team got the same draft board. The highest-ranked prospect on the board received a 99.55 score (an edge defender). The lowest score was 70.00 (43 players). No names were given. General managers knew only positions and rating scores: QB1 = 98.76; WR1 = 96.23, etc

Unbeknownst to participants, the players on the draft board represented the 321 prospects invited to the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine. Their scores were their composite rankings as high school recruits, courtesy of on3.com. If players had the same ranking, the younger player was ranked higher. A Top 100 Big Board for this project was published on Patriots Football Now last week.

Project Issues

There were a few issues that could have prevented this project from testing the hypothesis as well as I’d have liked. A few general managers (despite instructions) were confident they knew who the anonymous players were. They assumed TE1 was Brock Bowers or WR1 was Marvin Harrison Jr., etc. These assumptions were incorrect. However, they may have affected the decision-making process.

Another issue was general managers ignoring the player ratings. However, it could be argued that NFL teams do the same thing. Franchises got so focused on team needs, that they went very far down the overall rankings to take the top player available at that position. The No. 76 overall prospect did not get drafted, yet the No. 212 overall prospect did.

Finally, there was some missing information that would have been helpful to the general managers, even though it was meant to be a largely blind experiment. Players were classified by the positions they worked out with at the combine. This did not differentiate between right or left tackle, strong or free safety, etc. They didn’t know the size, speed, health, age, etc. These factors would have helped them make the best decisions for their team even if they didn’t know the player’s exact identity.

2024 NFL Draft – Round 1

Quarterbacks are projected to be the first three picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. They were the first three picks in this exercise as well. But aside from Caleb Williams, the other QBs are likely to be different on Draft Day. Would a wide receiver (No. 20 overall) have gone No. 4 to Arizona if they weren’t making assumptions about who it was? I don’t know. Would a center (No. 45 overall) have been selected at No. 24 if the GM didn’t have Jackson Powers-Johnson in mind? Again, not sure.

Without further ado, the Round 1 results of the 2024 NFL Mock Draft, throwback edition…

2024 NFL Draft – Round 2

Two more quarterbacks went off the board in Round 2. The Falcons selected J.J. McCarthy at No. 43. Later in the round the Steelers snagged Jayden Daniels at No. 51. Tight end Brock Bowers went to the Chargers at No. 37. Brock Bowers (Chargers, No. 37) and Laiatu Latu (Eagles, No. 50) are first round locks to go in Round 2 here. Cincinnati made Clemson’s Will Shipley the first running back off the board at No. 49. The complete second round…

2024 NFL Draft – Round 3

Rome Ozunze (Patriots, No. 68), Malik Nabers (Jets, No. 72), Troy Fautanu (Broncos, No. 81), Cooper DeJean (Steelers, No. 84) , and Joe Alt (Browns, No. 85) are among the projected Round 1 picks to slide to Round 3. Offensive guards Brady Latham (Buccaneers, No. 89) and Keaton Bills (Cardinals, No. 90) were both ranked outside the Top 200, but went 89 and 90 based on team needs.

Conclusion

The conclusion of this NFL Draft experiment can’t be made for a few seasons at least. Can Spencer Rattler or Bo Nix have a better NFL career than Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels? Are some of these high school studs who fell out of favor with draftniks going to be draft steals? Will the Round 1 hit rate of this random exercise match up to the actual draft results? The answer is TBD.

The biggest takeaway for now from this NFL Draft experience is that I love the NFL Draft and I’m not alone. So whether this experiment shows that the legions of us who watch hours of highlights of offensive guards are wasting our time or not, we will all continue doing what we do. At the very least, we’ve prepared a list of Day 3 gambles worth taking.