Week 18 NFL Odds: Take the Pats?

The New England Patriots end their 2024 season against their AFC East rival, the Buffalo Bills, in a game with little meaning for the Bills but massive NFL Draft implications for the Patriots.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFL odds, the Pats are +3.5 home underdogs despite the recent news that Bills backup QB Mitch Trubisky will play most of the game. The total is 36.5.

Plays are hard to come by in Week 18 of the NFL Regular Season, yet there may be some value in betting on this game. Here are two picks and some thoughts for the season’s final week.

New England Patriots +3.5

Bills QB Josh Allen will start this game to keep his chase of Brett Favre’s 297 consecutive starts alive, but won’t play more than a series. The Buffalo Bills hold the AFC’s second-seed, so HC Sean McDermott will look to rest his stars, including Allen.

A Patriots loss clinches the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. The organization would love to have that pick in their back pocket, but organizations don’t play the games.

Players do, and players want to win. So do coaches.

HC Jerod Mayo and OC Alex Van Pelt confirmed Maye will start on Sunday despite his listing on the injury report. The coaches view the season’s final game as a growth opportunity for Maye. Backup QB Joe Milton III will see playing time, too.

The Bills are a Super Bowl contender already looking toward their playoff journey. I’ll take the Patriots at any number over a field goal.

Game Total Over 36.5

The game total opened 40.5 and dropped like a stone through the week. Under the total is a solid play at that number, with the Bills resting their starters.

Yet, the over has hit seven times in the previous ten New England games. The Patriots defense ranks 26th in the NFL, allowing an average of 25.1 points per game. Though Bills backup Mitch Trubisky will take the majority of snaps, I’d expect at least ten points from Buffalo.

In Week 16, the Patriots scored 21 points against the Bills. Drake Maye threw two touchdown passes and racked up 261 passing yards.

Patriots coaches value Drake Maye’s development. I expect the Patriots to uncork their passing game and let Maye and Milton throw downfield.

Current NFL Odds Aren’t High on the Pats

Who will the Patriots target in the upcoming 2025 NFL Draft? Is it more important for the Pats to capture the first overall pick or for Drake Maye to finish his rookie season with an elite stat line?

Tanking is a fantasy created by pundits who need something to talk about. The Patriots play for their jobs, whether they’ll remain employed in New England or elsewhere in 2025.

I expect a valiant effort from the New England Patriots tomorrow, and a win would not shock me.