Dan Kelley’s Week 16 NFL Winners and Survivor Pool Picks

The goal was to get my winning picks up to a 70% success rate by the end of the NFL season and 80% for my elite options. My Week 15 picks kept me heading in the right direction. Of the 16 picks, only three lost. This included going 3-0 with elite options.

With only three losses, it is tough not to focus on what went wrong. My 11 most confident picks went 11-0. The five games I was least confident about left me with a 2-3 record. This furthers my belief that in 2025, I might not pick every game.

The Los Angeles Chargers were my biggest disappointment of Week 15. Sure, they were only my twelfth most confident pick, but they were the only loss that didn’t come close to winning. Los Angeles led 17-13, only to get blown out by Tampa Bay 40-17.

The Jets beating the Jaguars and the Bills beating the Lions were the other two losses of the week. Both were one-score games, so it felt a bit easier to stomach. The bottom line is that there was a reason all three games were so low on the pecking order. The good news is there are still three weeks in the regular season to post a perfect 16-0 week.

Once again, I am picking the winners for each game. The point spread is not taken into account.

Also Read – Week 16 NFL Power Rankings: Eagles Are NFC’s Top Team

Week 15 Record: 13-3
2024 Season Record: 142-69

Week 15 Elite Options Record: 3-0
2024 Elite Options Record: 42-12

ELITE OPTIONS

The elite options began the season 10-9 but have gone 32-3 since. Let’s add four more wins to that total this week.

Buffalo Bills (vs. New England) – This is the first time all season I’ve made the Patriots losing the safest bet of the week. But it is difficult to envision them pulling off the upset on the road against a Bills team playing well and still playing for playoff positioning.

Detroit Lions (at Chicago) – I don’t like to take a road team against a divisional rival this high, but the Lions are coming off a loss and will be looking to take it out on the Bears.

Green Bay Packers (vs. New Orleans) – The Saints have been competing, but a road win in Green Bay, especially if Alvin Kamara is unavailable, is unlikely.

Atlanta Falcons (vs. NY Giants) – Atlanta sends rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. out for his first NFL start. It appears the opponent for such a switch was well chosen as the Giants continue to be in the hunt for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

SECOND TIER

This group was 5-0 last week, so I’m looking for another 5-0 record in Week 16. A few came close to being bumped up a notch, but I didn’t want to get too cocky after a pair of excellent weeks.

Arizona Cardinals (at Carolina) – Still not overly impressed with the Cardinals, but they have proven to be mediocre, which is more than Carolina can say most weeks.

Indianapolis Colts (vs. Tennessee) – Betting against Mason Rudolph to come up with enough magic for a road win, but a lack of confidence in Indianapolis prevented this from moving up a tier.

Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Houston) – Earlier in the season, I may have picked the Texans to win this game and probably would have lost. The Chiefs have yet to look overly impressive, but they keep winning, which is all that counts here.

Los Angeles Rams (at NY Jets) – I’m officially on the Rams bandwagon, and the Jets still stink, yet somehow, that combination makes me a bit nervous.

Philadelphia Eagles (at Washington) – The Eagles have been rolling but still feel on the brink of dysfunction. Combined with a road game in their division, this game stays lower than maybe it should.

THIRD TIER

This tier went 3-1 last week. I should have bumped the Chargers down a notch. This week I’ll only pick three games, hopefully eliminating the loss.

Minnesota Vikings (at Seattle) – As long as the Vikings avoid looking ahead to their rematch with the Lions they should be fine. But the Seahawks still have an NFC West title they could win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Dallas) – I don’t understand either of these teams. Making this more than 50-50 is generous but there is no doubt that Tampa Bay is playing well.

Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Cleveland) – I swore off picking the Bengals to win since they’ve cost me so many games. But this game should be closer to an elite pick, I’ve just gotten weary of Cincinnati letting me down.

BOTTOM TIER

And finally, the 50-50 picks that keep hurting my winning percentage. This tier went 2-2 last week. It seems that is about the best I can hope for from them.

Jacksonville Jaguars (at Las Vegas) – Speaking of teams that have let me down this season, hello Jacksonville! The Jaguars are consistently disappointing, but the Raiders currently own the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Winning would be bad for Las Vegas, which is why there’s a decent chance it happens.

Denver Broncos (vs. LA Chargers) – The Chargers looked awful last week but it is tough to imagine Jim Harbaugh’s squad doing that again. Denver has won me over, but once again it’s a divisional road game against a team looking to rebound that scares me.

Miami Dolphins (vs. San Francisco) – The Dolphins should win. This game should also have more meaning than a couple of mediocre teams crawling toward the finish line. Who wants to win more?

Baltimore Ravens (vs. Pittsburgh) – This game has some serious meaning, with the AFC North title potentially at stake. Baltimore remains too talented to pick against but too inconsistent for me to pick above here when facing a solid Pittsburgh team.

My overall picks have won 67.3% of the time during the 2024 NFL season after last week’s 13-3 performance. My elite options are up to a 77.8% success rate. The goal was to get those numbers to 70% and 80%, respectively. With three weeks remaining, it’s going to be close.