Dan Kelley’s Week 15 NFL Winners and Survivor Pool Picks

After going a combined 17-13 over my prior two weeks of picking winners, things finally got back on track in Week 14. Thanks to a 10-3 record, my winning percentage for the season is again trending in the right direction. With four weeks remaining in the regular season, there is still time to boost those numbers, beginning with this week’s slate of 16 games.

The Bills, Titans, and Cowboys were my three losses last week. A total of 13 points decided their three games. I’ve accepted that the Bengals will cost me a win nearly every week, whether I pick them to win or lose. This is why Cincinnati losing to Dallas was my least confident pick of Week 14, and of course, it didn’t happen.

This week, I am going back to another team that has not treated me well for my pick of the week. The Baltimore Ravens have been my top option twice this season. So far, they are 0-2 in those games. Baltimore lost to Las Vegas in Week 2 and to Cleveland in Week 8. I’m hoping the third time is the charm, as I’m picking the Ravens to beat the Giants as the safest pick of Week 15. If they lose again, I’ll promise my nephews in Maryland not to do this to them again in the playoffs.

Once again, I am picking the winners for each game. The point spread is not taken into account.

Also Read – Week 15 NFL Power Rankings: Rams Trending Toward Contention

Week 14 Record: 10-3
2024 Season Record: 129-66

Week 12 Elite Options Record: 7-1
2024 Elite Options Record: 39-12

ELITE OPTIONS

This group of picking began the season slowly with a 10-9 record. However, the elite options are 29-3 since. There are no sure things in the NFL, but these three games all seem close.

Baltimore Ravens (at NY Giants) – One might think the Giants were tanking if they weren’t just so bad. Baltimore is coming off a loss and a bye. They begin their playoff run this week.

Kansas City Chiefs (at Cleveland) – Based on how the Chiefs keep squeaking out wins, picking them to cover any spread might be a risk. But Kansas City keeps winning and that trend should continue in Cleveland.

Minnesota Vikings (vs. Chicago) – The Vikings can’t overlook a division rival, even when playing at home. The Bears haven’t won since Week 6, and Kevin O’Connell should have his team ready to make sure that streak continues.

SECOND TIER

This group is a bit bigger this week, with five picks. None were quite confident enough to label “elite” but all can be chosen with confidence to win.

Atlanta Falcons (at Las Vegas) – The Raiders hold the No. 1 selection of the 2025 NFL Draft if the season ends today. They don’t want to lose that. The Falcons are playing poorly, but they are still playing for something positive with a chance to win the NFC South.

Arizona Cardinals (vs. New England) – This is probably good news for Patriots fans. I picked them to win several times in recent weeks when they’ve come up short. Kyler Murray could be a problem.

Washington Commanders (at New Orleans) – The teams are trending in opposite directions, so I’m not sure why I’m going against the trend for both. However, the snapped their losing streak last week, so it might be the start of some positive momentum.

Dallas Cowboys (at Carolina) – I nearly talked myself into picking Carolina, who has been playing well of late. But Dallas is so dysfunctional, they are more likely to win now that their playoff hopes are done.

Houston Texans (vs. Miami) – I almost bumped this one down a tier. But Houston is at home and coming off a bye. They should win this game, but will they?

THIRD TIER

If this group is successful, I have a successful week. It has been true all season and will likely continue to be true in Week 15. Four games, hopefully no less than three wins.

Los Angeles Rams (at San Francisco) – This game would be higher if it wasn’t a road game against a division opponent. The Rams have been hot.

Cincinnati Bengals (at Tennessee) – This game would be higher if I hadn’t grown so skeptical of trusting the Bengals.

Denver Broncos (vs. Indianapolis) – This game would be higher if I had a better feeling about it. I’m not sure why I hesitated, but I followed my gut and moved it down the ladder.

Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Tampa Bay) – This game would be higher if I had a better feel for who the Buccaneers are after 14 weeks.

BOTTOM TIER

And finally, the 50-50 picks that have haunted me all season. Four games here this week, some because both are good and others for the opposite reason.

Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. NY Jets) – The Jaguars took themselves out of the top draft pick with a win last week. Maybe they’ll keep it rolling against a Jets team that seems determined to stink.

Detroit Lions (vs. Buffalo) – The Bills might have been looking ahead to this game when they lost to the Rams last week. Detroit gets the nod in a possible Super Bowl preview.

Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Pittsburgh) – It was very tempting to go with the Eagles in the battle of Pennsylvania. After their internal problems a week ago, this game could make or break Philadelphia’s season.

Green Bay Packers (at Seattle) – Both teams are trying to break into that top tier of contenders. Should be a good battle, with the Packers emerging with a huge road win.

My overall picks have won 66.2% of the time during the 2024 NFL season. My elite options are up to a 76.5% success rate. If those numbers can increase to 70% and 80% over the next few weeks, this should be considered a successful rookie season of picking winners.