Dan Kelley’s Week 14 NFL Winners and Survivor Pool Picks

I was so disappointed with my 8-6 record in Week 11 that I gave myself a bye week in Week 12. The hope was that a week off would help my ability to pick NFL winners once again. How did that strategy work out for me? My six most confident picks all won. It went downhill from there.

Despite going 4-0 with my elite options last week, and 7-1 with my top eight picks. The other eight picks saw only two victories, leaving me with a disappointing 9-7 record with my Week 13 winners.

Not to be a cliche, but the margin between finishing 15-1 or 9-7 was razor-thin. My only pick that didn’t come close to winning was Tennessee beating Washington. The Bengals, Falcons, Patriots, Browns, Jaguars, and Panthers all had solid chances to win before coming up short. Carolina’s loss hurt the most. They scored to take a three-point lead with 30 seconds left in regulation and still lost. The Panthers weren’t the only ones celebrating a bit prematurely.

What did I learn from all my almost-wins in Week 13 with underdogs? To stop picking losing teams. In Week 1 I went 14-2 picking the higher-ranked team on my power rankings. I’m going back to that formula to avoid thinking too much and losing unnecessarily.

Once again, I am picking the winners for each game. The point spread is not taken into account.

Also Read – Week 13 NFL Power Rankings: Seahawks Enter the Top 10

Week 13 Record: 9-7
2024 Season Record: 119-63

Week 12 Elite Options Record: 4-0
2024 Elite Options Record: 36-11

ELITE OPTIONS

Despite some recent struggles, my elite options keep rolling. Over the past seven weeks of selections, the elite options are 26-2. There are no sure things in the NFL, but these four games come close in Week 14.

Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Carolina) – If the Panthers couldn’t pull out a win for me last week, they’re certainly not ending the Eagles’ eight-game winning streak. That said, Carolina has become impressively competitive of late.

Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cleveland) – If I was still overthinking things, talking myself into a Jameis Winston-led road win might be easy. But I’m keeping things simple this week and the Steelers are a superior team and playing at home.

Buffalo Bills (at LA Rams) – The Rams remain in the playoff hunt and are capable of beating anyone on any given Sunday. But the Bills are playing far too good to bet against.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Las Vegas) – The Buccaneers are coming off an exciting win, and the Raiders are coming off a disappointing loss. Tampa Bay is at home and has far more at stake.

SECOND TIER

Last week this group went 3-1. This week there are only three second-tier games, so hopefully the loss is the game that gets eliminated.

Miami Dolphins (vs. NY Jets) – Division rivalries make me nervous, but the Jets have been playing awful. Miami lost to Green Bay last week, but they should be in for a solid rebound performance against New York.

Minnesota Vikings (vs. Atlanta) – Kirk Cousins returning to Minnesota would usually be tough to pass up. But the Falcons have been inconsistent while the Vikings continue to chug along.

New Orleans Saints (at NY Giants) – The Saints have not treated me well this season, betting for or against them. But betting against the Giants feels like a no-brainer, despite them giving the Cowboys a scare on Thanksgiving.

THIRD TIER

This is the part of the program where things have fallen apart for me recently. This is the week that changes.

Tennessee Titans (vs. Jacksonville) – Tennessee let me down last week, but a win over Washington on the road seems like more of a longshot than a win while hosting Jacksonville. NFL Draft seeding is at stake in this one.

Kansas City Chiefs (vs. LA Chargers) – An 11-1 team playing at home would normally not be so far down. But the Chargers are likely to play them close, as even lesser teams have been doing this season.

Detroit Lions (vs. Green Bay) – Another 11-1 home team down in this group? I expect the Lions will win, but the Packers are tougher than many realize, and division rivals make me nervous.

BOTTOM TIER

This group is usually reserved for 50-50 propositions, but my winning percentage has been hurt by this group. Since my overall record needs to improve, I’m going 3-0 here this week.

San Francisco 49ers (vs. Chicago) – I was ready to throw in the towel on the 49ers for the rest of the season. However, when this game came up, it was tough to envision the Bears coming up with the road win.

Seattle Seahawks (at Arizona) – An NFC West game with playoff implications for both teams. I prefer Geno Smith in the QB battle against Kyler Murray at this stage in the season. We’ll see how wise that proves to be.

Dallas Cowboys (vs. Cincinnati) – No team has cost me more wins this season than Cincinnati. I still haven’t figured out how they are so bad this season, but I’m done betting on them…for now.

My overall picks have won 65.4% of the time during the 2024 NFL season. My elite options have won a more impressive 76.6%. Those numbers should increase after Week 14.