Dan Kelley’s Week 13 NFL Winners and Survivor Pool Picks

NFL teams get a bye week. I decided Week 12 was a good time for me to take one too. Why? Because Week 11 had me relying on a Monday Night Football win just to break .500. Sometimes when a person falls, it is best to get right back on the horse. Other times, regrouping is the best bet. I chose to regroup.

Taking a step back also made me realize that my Week 11 picks weren’t nearly as bad as it felt at the time. I managed to finish 8-6 for the week. More importantly, my elite options were 4-1. Next season might see me only give advice on elite options, but at least for the remainder of 2024, I’ll keep picking every game.

Five of my six most confident picks won. The lone exception was the San Francisco 49ers, who fell to the Seattle Seahawks 20-17 at home. My most confident pick of the week turned out to be the biggest blowout of Week 11, with the Detroit Lions dominating the Jacksonville Jaguars 52-6. Admittedly, nobody needs to cover football for a living to have called that one correctly.

Coming off my bye week, I’m looking to put up a dominant showing this week. There are no bye weeks in the NFL for Week 13, so I’ll pick all 16 games. Is my first 16-0 week out of the question? Let’s hope not.

Once again, I am picking the winners for each game. The point spread is not taken into account.

Week 12 Record: 8-6
2024 Season Record: 110-56

Week 12 Elite Options Record: 4-1
2024 Elite Options Record: 32-11

Also Read – Week 13 NFL Power Rankings: Seahawks Enter the Top 10

ELITE OPTIONS

Over the past six weeks of selecting, my elite picks have gone 22-2. This week could add four more wins to that total, led by a pair of Thanksgiving hosts.

Detroit Lions (vs. Chicago) – The Lions look like the NFL’s best team, and they can showcase it in front of a national audience. Can Caleb Williams steal the show? I’m betting against it.

Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Las Vegas) – Kansas City hasn’t looked dominant while winning, but aside from one loss, they keep winning. The talent discrepancy alone here is too much for the Raiders to overcome.

Dallas Cowboys (vs. NY Giants) – The Cowboys finally showed they can still win, something the Giants haven’t done since Week 5. People are playing for jobs on both sides.

Buffalo Bills (vs. San Francisco) – Throwing in the towel on the 49ers, finally. Buffalo won six in a row and are playing at home coming off a bye.

SECOND TIER

Of these four games, one almost landed in the elite options. One almost got picked to lose. Let’s see where the chips fall when the games are played.

Green Bay Packers (vs. Miami) – This Thanksgiving host came close to being an elite option. However, I needed to respect how well Miami has played since the return of Tua Tagovailoa.

Minnesota Vikings (vs. Arizona) – Minnesota continues to exceed all expectations. Arizona has played well too, but lost coming off their bye to end a four-game win streak.

Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Pittsburgh) – Why do I keep picking the Bengals? I’ve sworn them off, believe in the Steelers, and picked Pittsburgh in my original draft. But Cincinnati continuing to lose with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase playing so well remains unfathomable to me.

Los Angeles Rams (at New Orleans) – The Saints are 2-0 under interim head coach Darren Rizzi, but the 2-7 team under Dennis Allen is still in there. Rams, like the Bengals, are a team I might need to (eventually) accept just isn’t as good as I think.

THIRD TIER

A couple of underdogs made their way into this group. If anyone hits on a four-team parlay with the third tier picks, there could be some nice money it.

Atlanta Falcons (vs. LA Chargers) – Atlanta has lost two straight but is coming off a bye. The Chargers lost to the Ravens last week, and there could be a hangover from the one-score loss on Monday Night Football.

New England Patriots (vs. Indianapolis) – Their loss to Miami didn’t indicate how competitive New England has been recently. Chance to catch the Colts overlooking them, something Indianapolis is not good enough to do.

Seattle Seahawks (at NY Jets) – The last time I made picks (Week 11), I went with the Jets beating the Colts. I have realized I’m safer picking against New York every week.

Cleveland Browns (at Denver): This might be the first time I’ve picked the Browns to win in 2024. They are coming off a big win against Pittsburgh with a chance to salvage their season with a strong homestretch. Admittedly, I continue to underestimate the Broncos, but I like this pick.

BOTTOM TIER

These games are considered closer to a 50-50 proposition. All four picks are underdogs this week, so hitting 50% wouldn’t be bad.

Tennessee Titans (at Washington) – Tennessee is coming off a big win over Houston, while Washington has lost three straight. All the pressure is on the Commanders in this one.

Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Houston) – The Jaguars are coming off a bye and have Trevor Lawrence back. It’s a perfect upset scenario at home against a Texans team that hasn’t looked great in over a month.

Carolina Panthers (vs. Tampa Bay) – An underdog team hosting a division rival is a good bet. The Buccaneers have only beaten the Giants in their last five games.

Philadelphia Eagles (at Baltimore) – I’ve rarely gone against the Ravens all season, especially at home. But the Eagles are playing great, something many don’t seem to acknowledge yet.

My overall picks have won 66.3% of the time for the 2024 NFL season. My elite options success rate has improved to 74.4%. I’d love to see those percentages increase in Week 13.