Dan Kelley’s Week 11 NFL Winners and Survivor Pool Picks

My first two NFL picks of Week 10 lost. The Bengals fell one point short of upsetting the Ravens in Baltimore on Thursday Night Football. Then, the Giants lost to the Panthers in London to kick off the Sunday slate of games. Week 10 ended with another loss, as the Dolphins emerged victorious on Monday Night Football by beating the Rams on the road. The bookends of the week were a disaster, a combined 0-3. Fortunately, the 11 games in between were far more successful.

Those middle group of games went a combined 10-1, giving my picks a 10-4 record for the week. The only loss in those middle games was the Saints defeating the Falcons. This was the explanation for picking the Atlanta Falcons to win in Week 10, though only making it a third-tier selection:

“I moved this pick out of the elite options because it is a road game vs. a division rival. It got bumped down again because of the boost an interim head coach can provide. But not enough to pick the struggling Saints to win.”

Fortunately, the top six picks from last week’s selections all won. However, the top pick of the week was Kansas City defeating Denver. Although it did happen, the Chiefs needed a blocked field goal as time expired to remain undefeated. A close call for the week’s best bet.

IT'S BLOCKED! @CHIEFS WIN! STILL UNDEFEATED! pic.twitter.com/hMLhAgbRpf

— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2024

While 10-4 is solid, I’ll be looking to improve on that in Week 11, though that remains to be seen.

Once again, I am picking the winners for each game. The point spread is not taken into account.

Last Week’s Record: 10-4
2024 Season Record: 102-50

Last Week’s Elite Options Record: 3-0
2024 Elite Options Record: 28-10

Also Read – Week 11 NFL Power Rankings: The 49ers Are Rising

ELITE OPTIONS

Over the past five weeks, my elite picks have gone 18-1, with the only loss being the Browns defeating the Ravens in Week 8. Hopefully, those winning ways continue with these five picks.

Detroit Lions (vs. Jacksonville): Jared Goff isn’t going to throw five interceptions again this week. But even when he did the Lions still won. Mac Jones and the Jaguars would score the upset of the season with a win this week.

Minnesota Vikings (at Tennessee): The Vikings looked like they were coming back to earth in recent weeks. But even without Aaron Jones, their defense should give Will Levin and the Titans fits.

San Francisco 49ers (vs. Seattle): Divisional games are always tough to predict. But the 49ers have Christian McCaffrey back and should be a team to be reckoned with in the second half of the season.

Miami Dolphins (vs. Las Vegas): Miami looks like a new team since getting Tua Tagovailoa back. Las Vegas is a bad football team, though they’ve knocked off two of my elite picks already this season.

Green Bay Packers (at Chicago): The Bears offense looked dreadful against New England last week. Maybe they were overlooking the Patriots and looking ahead to this game, but that’s not enough to give me confidence in the Bears against a Packers team coming off a bye.

"Getting Caleb to understand taking a sack versus a throwaway is quite literally the difference between us scoring points, and not."@Danorlovsky7 on Caleb Williams' development ✍️ pic.twitter.com/9WkXKFzE95

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) November 12, 2024

SECOND TIER

Three games fall into this week’s second tier. I was tempted to make all of them elite options, but can’t get too overconfident.

Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Washington): The Commanders have convinced me they are for real this season. However, they need to overcome the NFC East’s top team in Philadelphia to win this week.

Cincinnati Bengals (at LA Chargers): No team has gotten me more losses than the Bengals this season. So, while they remain a solid pick for me on the road this week, I won’t be offended if others don’t take my advice.

New Orleans Saints (vs. Cleveland): Normally I’d bet against the coaching change momentum wearing off after the Saints win last week. But the Browns are still a lousy football team, possibly paving the way for two straight for the Saints.

Saints defeat the Falcons in Week 10! pic.twitter.com/ifIZdikY03

— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2024

THIRD TIER

No issues betting on these three but nobody’s survivor pool fate should be at stake when doing so.

New York Jets (vs. Indianapolis): Picking the Jets gives me no confidence. The Colts give me no confidence. However, New York finishing 7-10 as I predicted before the season would make me happy, so a win here would help get them there.

Baltimore Ravens (at Pittsburgh): This should be a great game. I think the Ravens’ defense will step up and force Russell Wilson to be the deciding factor in this one, which works in Baltimore’s favor.

Atlanta Falcons (at Denver): A bounce back after dropping a game to the Saints is needed for the Falcons. I expect Atlanta to do so against the Broncos.

Ridder to Bijan! @AtlantaFalcons extend their lead.

📺: #NOvsATL on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/1dOevJjoZZ pic.twitter.com/7oHuzrHB9a

— NFL (@NFL) November 26, 2023

BOTTOM TIER

The bottom-tier games have hurt the overall winning percentage this season. Hopefully, these three help turn that around in Week 11.

New England Patriots (vs. LA Rams): I’m picking the Patriots for the third straight week. They are 1-1 over the past two.

Buffalo Bills (vs. Kansas City): I was confident picking Buffalo but felt less confident for some reason when I saw they were favored. Maybe Vegas does know best, but picking against a 9-0 team should be done with a bit of hesitation.

Houston Texans (at Dallas): The Texans are good and I’ve finally accepted the Cowboys stink. But the Lions-jinx could get Houston, which is why they are so far down the pecking order this week.

You heard it here first, the Dan Campbell Lions hangover is real. @JOEL9ONE | @BetMGM | #OnePride pic.twitter.com/7tF59xc4UM

— Green Light with Chris Long (@greenlight) October 7, 2024

After ten weeks, I’m at 67.1% picking winners for the 2024 NFL season. My elite options success rate has improved to 73.7% following four great weeks. Can that trend continue in Week 11? Stay tuned.