Dan Kelley’s Week 10 Winners and Survivor Pool Picks

Usually, it’s better to just focus on the positive. That said, I can’t help but focus on how close my Week 9 NFL picks came to having a perfect week. Only three games prevented last week’s winning selections from going 15-0. Sadly, all three losses were avoidable.

As noted in last week’s write-up, picking the Houston Texans to beat the New York Jets seems like a no-brainer. It could have been my top pick of the week. Why weren’t they? Because they were underdogs. I couldn’t figure out why the Jets were favored, but I assumed Vegas knows best, so I knocked them down to eighth in my order of confidence. In hindsight, it would have been better to avoid picking them altogether.

The other two losses from Week 9 were the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots, who face each other this week. Chicago played Arizona on the road. It’s time for me to accept the Cardinals are better than I’ve been giving them credit for. I felt great about my Patriots pick, despite their 2-6 record entering the game, right up until Drake Maye’s overtime pass was intercepted to end it.

Second INT of the day for @amanihooker37 seals it!

📺: Watch #NEvsTEN on @NFLonFOX stream on NFL+ pic.twitter.com/c30Xd7ti6y

— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) November 3, 2024

But 12-3 is nothing to sneeze at, which included winning my top seven picks of the week.

Once again, I am picking the winners for each game. The point spread is not taken into account.

Last Week’s Record: 12-3
2024 Season Record: 92-46

Last Week’s Elite Options Record: 3-0
2024 Elite Options Record: 25-10

Also Read – Week 10 NFL Power Rankings: Saints Take Over Bottom Spot

ELITE OPTIONS

Over the past four weeks, my elite picks have gone 15-1, with the only loss being the Browns defeating the Ravens two weeks ago. For Week 10, only three games fall into this category for me.

Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Denver): Divisional matchups are always a bit of a risk. But the Chiefs are still undefeated and the Broncos beating them on the road doesn’t feel like the way this streak is coming to an end.

Buffalo Bills (at Indianapolis): The NFL remains a quarterback league. I like Josh Allen’s chances against Joe Flacco.

Minnesota Vikings (vs. Jacksonville): If Mac Jones starts I’ll be rooting for him, but can’t pick the Jaguars to win regardless. My preseason AFC South pick has consistently let me down this year.

Nakobe Dean intercepts Lawrence in the end zone! First career INT#JAXvsPHI pic.twitter.com/RtANcTJs77

— NFL (@NFL) November 4, 2024

SECOND TIER

Only two games in this category, which doesn’t bode well for my overall confidence this week.

San Francisco 49ers (at Tampa Bay): The Buccaneers’ only win in the last five weeks has come against the Saints. Not sold on San Francisco yet, but I like them to beat Tampa Bay.

Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Tennessee): Despite the Titans victory over the Patriots last week, picking against them every week still seems like a safe bet. Lack of faith in the Chargers prevented this from behind an elite option.

let's go heeb!!!!

📺 | @nfloncbs pic.twitter.com/qJhmv9PldS

— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) November 3, 2024

THIRD TIER

This group consists of six games. I could make an argument for any of these picks being higher up. However, I could just as easily make arguments for why they should be lower. As a result, they land in the middle.

New England Patriots (at Chicago): I’m going with the Patriots to win back-to-back games for the first time this season. In reality, it’s the third straight week I’ve picked the Patriots, including their loss to the Jets. Perhaps my belief that Drake Maye is better than Caleb Williams is clouding my judgment, but I like New England’s odds.

Atlanta Falcons (at New Orleans): I moved this pick out of the elite options because it is a road game vs. a division rival. It got bumped down again because of the boost an interim head coach can provide. But not enough to pick the struggling Saints to win.

Arizona Cardinals (vs. NY Jets): Finally, I’ve accepted the Cardinals are better than I predicted. However, the Jets remain just as mediocre as expected, even after landing Davante Adams.

Los Angeles Rams (vs. Miami): The Dolphins looked much better with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback last week. The Rams have looked better whenever they have a full complement of their offensive stars available though, which they should have on Monday.

BOTTOM TIER

Three games fell to the bottom tier this week. Matchups between good teams or bad teams are tougher to call. This group features both types.

Detroit Lions (at Houston): The Lions continue to play better than anyone, including the undefeated Chiefs. The Texans lost last week, perhaps caught looking ahead to this game.

New York Giants (vs. Carolina): Picking the Giants is tough to do, but picking the Panthers for another week seems harder. I’d feel better betting against both.

Cincinnati Bengals (at Baltimore): Cincinnati has not proven to be as good as I expected, but they can still make a playoff push with a strong second-half showing. Beating Baltimore on the road would be a good way to get things started and get revenge for the Ravens’ Week 5 win in Cincinnati.

BURROW TO GESICKI AGAIN. 5 TD passes for No. 9 today!

📺: #LVvsCIN on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/AJsmGddhe4

— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024

After eight weeks, I’m at 65.0% picking winners for the 2024 NFL season. My elite options success rate has improved to 68.8% following three great weeks. Can that trend continue in Week 9? Stay tuned.