Dan Kelley’s Week 9 NFL Winners and Survivor Pool Picks

My Week 8 NFL picks were a mixed batch. Of my eight most confident picks for the week, seven of them emerged victorious. However, the one blemish on that record was the top pick of the week, the Baltimore Ravens. My top Survivor Pool pick is now a paltry 4-4 on the season, despite the overall success of my selections.

The overall record for the week was 10-6. This included going 1-3 for my least confident picks. After going 7-1 on the top end of my selections, the bottom half went just 3-5. There was a good reason I wasn’t feeling more confident about them.

Week 8 marked the second time the Ravens were my most confident pick of the week. They lost both games. The Las Vegas Raiders knocked off Baltimore as my Week 2 best bet. Last week it was the Cleveland Browns knocking off their AFC North rival by a final score of 29-24.

JAMEIS GOING FOR IT ALL!

📺: #BALvsCLE on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/hAZ6Y2r9px

— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024

Once again, I am picking the winners for each game. The point spread is not taken into account.

Last Week’s Record: 10-6
2024 Season Record: 80-43

Last Week’s Elite Options Record: 4-1
2024 Elite Options Record: 22-10

Also Read – Week 9 NFL Power Rankings: Chiefs and Lions Keep Winning

ELITE OPTIONS

Over the past three weeks, my elite picks have gone 12-1, with the only loss being the Ravens last week. I only see three locks this week, which includes going with Baltimore again. I left out a few others for reasons explained below.

Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Las Vegas): Anyone who reads these weekly winners probably realizes I’m a lot higher on the Bengals than their record warrants. I’m also not a believer in the Raiders, making this an easy choice.

Baltimore Ravens (vs. Denver): Ravens are coming off a surprising loss and the Broncos have won five of six. However, Denver’s latest wins have come against two of the NFL’s worst teams in New Orleans and Carolina.

Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Tampa Bay): Picking the Chiefs to win has been a weekly staple and it has proven successful thus far. Why mess with a good thing?

WILD: The entire Allegiant Stadium home of the #Raiders was OVERUN BY #CHIEFS FANS, THE WHOLE CROWD WAS RED.

🤯

“Arrowhead West,”- KC linebacker @DTranquill said after today’s game.

pic.twitter.com/rnV0oLRaqR

— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) October 28, 2024

SECOND TIER

Something about these winners didn’t make me feel good enough to put in the top tier, but they all should win. All four should be heavily favored.

Minnesota Vikings (vs. Indianapolis): Minnesota lost two straight but they are still no fluke. Indianapolis will rely on Joe Flacco to turn things around, which is just possible enough to keep this game out of the elite options.

Los Angeles Chargers (at Cleveland): If the Browns win again, I’ll re-think my opinion that they are a lousy football team. But for now, I’m chalking last week up to an “anything can happen” vs. a divisional opponent.

Washington Commanders (at NY Giants): Time for me to start believing in the Commanders. Playing a weak Giants team is a good place to start. However, a division rival on the road prevented it from being ranked further up.

Buffalo Bills (at Miami): A lot of similarities to Commanders-Giants. On paper, it seems like an easy win for a superior team. But the Bills and Dolphins are division rivals and Tua Tagovailoa’s return can help Miami change form. Still going with Buffalo, just not as confidently as it seems.

THIRD TIER

This group consists of four games. I’m confident about them, but it seems foolish to get too confident in this group.

New England Patriots (at Tennessee): I picked the Patriots to beat the Jets last week, and they did. Now I’m picking them to go back-to-back, which is admittedly bold for a 2-6 team, but the Titans are not a quality team.

Chicago Bears (at Arizona): I have poor reads on both of these teams. The Bears will need to rebound from their Hail Mary defeat to Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. The Cardinals could be the team to help them do so.

Atlanta Falcons (vs Dallas): The Cowboys are just not the team I expected them to be this season. I thought they’d be a top-three team in the NFC. Instead, they are one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL this season. I’ll assume that continues until proven wrong.

Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Jacksonville): There is a good chance I take the Jaguars and the points, or just the Jaguars outright with great odds. I can’t accept how bad they are compared to what I thought they’d be. From a neutral perspective, Philadelphia would be an easy bet here.

HURTS LAUNCHES DEEP TO DEVONTA SMITH.

46-YARD TOUCHDOWN.

📺: #PHIvsCIN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/u4yjFvgeOi

— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024

BOTTOM TIER

Only three games made their way into the bottom tier this week. All three are division rivalry games, which always make me a bit nervous, but I’m feeling good about the winners just the same.

Detroit Lions (at Green Bay): The Lions are playing fantastic. But they are also playing a division rival on the road who is also playing well. This should be the game of the week, but if Detroit is as good as I believe them to be, they should pull it out.

Los Angeles Rams (at Seattle): Having Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both healthy has the Rams looking like a new team. The Seahawks remain too unpredictable to bet on.

Carolina Panthers (vs. New Orleans): Carolina has been the NFL’s worst team for the past two seasons, but this week, I’m picking them to win for the first time all season (they have one win when I bet against them).  The Saints are playing awful football at the moment. If that continues, an upset could be in the works.

After eight weeks, I’m at 65.0% picking winners for the 2024 NFL season. My elite options success rate has improved to 68.8% following three great weeks. Can that trend continue in Week 9? Stay tuned.