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Dan Kelley’s Week 6 NFL Winners and Survivor Pool Picks

Published

5 months ago

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Kirk Cousins led the Atlanta Falcons to a 36-30 overtime victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season

My Week 5 NFL picks finished with a solid 9-4 record. Unfortunately, my top two locks both lost. The San Francisco 49ers fell at home to the Arizona Cardinals, knocking off my lock of the week. My second-most confident pick was the Seattle Seahawks, who were hosting the New York Giants. Brian Daboll’s squad picked up the road win and improved to 2-3.

The rest of the selections were a combined 9-2, with only the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams (my least confident pick for Week 5) letting me down. Perhaps I’ve seen enough of Patriots by now to start picking against them more frequently? Possibly. On a positive note, my prediction that the Jacksonville Jaguars would pick of their first win of the season came to fruition, with a 37-34 win over the Indianapolis Colts.

Once again, I am picking the winners for each game. The point spread is not taken into account.

Last Week’s Record: 10-4
2024 Season Record: 49-29

Last Week’s Elite Options Record: 2-2
2024 Elite Options Record: 10-9

Also Read – Week 6 NFL Power Rankings: Jaguars Win, Exit Last Place

Elite Options

Despite going 2-2 with my best picks last week, I’m feeling confident about getting the top-end picks correct this week. The strategy has partially shifted to picking against certain teams, as seen below.

Atlanta Falcons (at Carolina) – The Panthers won a game this season but it won’t stop me from picking against them every week until proven wrong more than once. A division game on the road is normally a bit scary, but not in this case.

Philadelphia Eagles (vs Cleveland) – I maintained before the season that the Browns would be bad this year, and they have yet to prove me wrong. Even with the Eagles inconsistent so far, it should be an easy home win.

Houston Texans (at New England) – Drake Maye proving me wrong in his NFL debut is a loss I’d happily live with. But on paper, this is the biggest mismatch of Weke 6.

Baltimore Ravens (vs Washington) – The Ravens are playing as well as anyone at the moment, and I’m still not as sold on the Commanders as many. Baltimore at home should prevail.

Cincinnati Bengals (vs New York Giants) – I’ve lost picking the Bengals as an elite option, and just last week, lost picking against the Giants as an elite option. If this one loses, nobody to blame but myself.

Feeling Great

The “feeling great” picks last week went 3-0. If this happens again in Week 6, I might swap the entire group to the “elite picks” tier.

Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Chicago) – Picking a team that was No. 32 in the NFL Power Rankings to win two games in a row is a risk. But London has become the Jaguars’ home away from home, so I’ll press my luck.

Green Bay Packers (vs Arizona) – Last week, I lost picking against both of these teams. Now that Jordan Love has his first win of 2024 under his belt, I feel more confident going with the Packers at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers (at Las Vegas) – I’m still not convinced the Steelers are a good football team and I don’t feel great picking them, especially on the road. But that should give some idea of what I think of the Raiders, despite their two wins.

Feeling Good

All three of these picks could be at least one rung higher, but all three predictions are for road teams playing division rivals. That scares me a bit (unless the Carolina Panthers are the home team).

Indianapolis Colts (at Tennessee) – Neither team is playing well, but the Titans are worse. A “lesser of two evils” pick.

Buffalo Bills (at NY Jets) – I predicted the Jets would lose last week (they did) and trade for Davante Adams afterward (they didn’t). Maybe this is the week.

San Francisco 49ers (at Seattle) – To be honest, I have no idea what to make of either of these teams at this point. The 49ers let me down last week, but they are still a far more talented team, at least on paper.

Somebody’s Going to Win

These three games feel like coin flips, so I’m going with my gut on these.

New Orleans Saints (vs Tampa Bay) – Home against a division rival that is coming off a tough loss to Atlanta. Maybe next week will be when I start acknowledging I the Buccaneers are better than I thought.

Denver Broncos (vs LA Chargers) – Neither team is great but they seem to be trending in opposite directions. Once again, the home team wins the coin flip.

Dallas Cowboys (at Detroit) – The Cowboys are playing so inconsistent, it’s about time they put together a few good games in a row. The Lions are a better team, but since the game is in Dallas I’m giving them the nod.

After five weeks I have a 62.8 winning percentage with my 2024 NFL winning predictions. I hope to see that winning percentage continue to trend in a positive direction with these 14 selections for Week 6.

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Award-winning blogger, Dan's work has also been featured on Fox Sports, Boston Metro, Barstool Sports, MLB.com, and many other outlets.

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