Dan Kelley’s Week 2 NFL Knockout, Survivor Pool Advice

In Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season, my picks to win went 14-2. The only victorious teams I had picked to lose, who won, were the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins. Fortunately, I did not take the Cincinnati Bengals or Jacksonville Jaguars in any of my survivor/knockout pools. I liked the Jaguars slightly, but the Dolphins were playing at home, making that game near the bottom of my 16 options. The Patriots are a team I’m rarely comfortable picking for or against in general, and especially with so many unknowns with coaching and personnel to start the season. I also ranked New England higher than most (No. 23) on my initial NFL Power Rankings.

Considering what a popular (and incorrect) Cincinnati was on opening weekend, avoiding games involving New England is not a bad plan for now.

Everyone who picked the Bengals in their Survivor pool. pic.twitter.com/Ax8vCMY99Z

— Steve Buchanan (@SBuchanan24) September 8, 2024

After so much success in Week 1, can it continue for the rest of the season? Let’s hope so. I will continue to pick every NFL game every week. However, I will put these predictions into tiers for people playing in knockout/survivor pools. I am picking the winners for each game. The spread is not taken into account at all here.

Last Week’s Record: 14-2
2024 Season Record: 14-2

Elite Options

Five games appear to be near-locks in Week 2. It is possible to talk myself in or out of most picks, but tough to envision the home teams not going 4-0 from this group.

Baltimore Ravens (vs Las Vegas) – The Ravens came within an Isaiah Likely toe of beating the Chiefs on the road in Week 1. They will be looking to even their record against an overmatched Raiders team.

Philadelphia Eagles (vs Atlanta) – Kirk Cousins looked shaky in the Falcons opener and has a poor history in prime time. Unless coming back from Brazil affects Philadelphia, the Eagles should prevail.

Houston Texans (vs Chicago) – The Texans are what the Bears hope to become. Chicago is not there yet, and it’s a big step up in competition for them in Week 2.

Dallas Cowboys (vs New Orleans) – Dallas looked great in their opener, and has key players happy and under contract. New Orleans looked great against Carolina but that is not a great measuring stick.

ZEKE SCORING TDs FOR THE COWBOYS.

📺: #DALvsCLE on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/CHYqTpZfPa

— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024

Feeling Great

These four games all give me tremendous confidence, just not quite as much as the elite tier. If people can’t use one of the top teams these are all solid options.

Detroit Lions (vs Tampa Bay) – The Lions are the superior team and playing at home. Baker Mayfield‘s Week 1 performance kept me from bumping Detroit up a tier, though.

Los Angeles Chargers (at Carolina) – This will likely be the most popular pick of the week. The Chargers won their opener, and the Panthers looked like the Panthers. But it’s so obvious it does make me a little nervous.

San Francisco 49ers (at Minnesota) – It is tough to leave San Francisco out of the top tier, even after Minnesota’s impressive win in Week 1. Still feels unlikely the Vikings will win but a road team will rarely be considered an elite option.

Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Cleveland) – Jacksonville has their home opener against a Cleveland team that I was not high on to begin the season. Deshaun Watson’s play and off-the-field distractions aren’t making me change my mind.

1st career touchdown for Brian Thomas Jr. 🔥

📺: #JAXvsMIA on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/dIIyzWOjjG

— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024

Feeling Good

These teams will all win, but I don’t feel strongly enough about any of them to get knocked out of a knockout pool over.

New England Patriots (vs Seattle) – These teams are pretty evenly matched, generally speaking. Seattle is coming across the country to play a 1 pm game in Foxboro. Advantage: Patriots.

Kansas City Chiefs (at Cincinnati) – Two-time defending Super Bowl champs are 1-0 and playing a Bengals team that lost at home to the Patriots. Can’t bet against the Chiefs here but Cincinnati being on the other end of an upset in Week 2 is not far-fetched enough to give me more confidence in Kansas City.

Pittsburgh Steelers (at Denver) – I only predicted the Denver Broncos to win three games in 2024. Week 1 did nothing to alter that opinion. Still not sure how good the Steelers are but I do expect them to beat the Broncos.

Take a bow, TJ Watt. @Steelers win! #PITvsATL pic.twitter.com/zZQKyr2fQX

— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024

Somebody’s Going to Win

The bottom tier is the games somebody has to win, but who that will be doesn’t feel much better than a coin flip to me.

Washington Commanders (at New York Giants) – There are very few teams who wouldn’t have been bumped up a tier or two by playing the Giants. But it’s a road game for the Commanders against a division rival. And Washington doesn’t look great either.

New York Jets (at Tennessee) – Another game between two teams I projected to miss the playoffs this season. Getting knocked out of a pool in Week 2 using a team I don’t think is very good makes me uncomfortable, though the Jets should win the game.

Indianapolis Colts (at Green Bay) – Everything tells me to rank this game higher. Jordan Love is unlikely to play, the Colts looked good in their opener, etc. But I can’t control my gut, and my gut is telling me that picking against Green Bay in the home opener could be regrettable.

Los Angeles Rams (at Arizona) – Once again, a division rivalry where the road team should win based on talent alone. But Arizona played Buffalo tough in their opener and Marvin Harrison Jr. could be a problem after a quiet NFL debut.

Miami Dolphins (vs Buffalo) – This is the lone game of the week with two teams in the top ten of PFN’s Power Rankings. Buffalo remains my pick to win the AFC East, but it is tough to go with the road team in a division rivalry game between two very good teams.

And if anyone doesn’t like my NFL picks for Week 2, feel free to check in with Mike Lombardi’s grandson.

I spend all this time studying and breaking down games. And my 7 year old grandson kicks my butt going 15-1 last week in his predictions. Love you Dominic pic.twitter.com/6CvwnYzhyl

— Michael Lombardi (@mlombardiNFL) September 11, 2024