Kelley: Not All Rookie QBs Need To Be Handled the Same Way

New England Patriots fans and media alike have analyzed the benefit of starting or sitting rookie quarterback Drake Maye since the team drafted him in April. The Patriots signed veteran Jacoby Brissett in the offseason and ultimately New England coach Jerod Mayo held a press conference last week to announce Brissett will be his Week 1 starter. Whether people believe Maye should start immediately, wait until later this year, or sit an entire season, everyone seems certain their opinion is correct. In reality, there is more than one approach to developing a successful NFL quarterback.

An opinion on quarterback play from Tom Brady is about as universally respected a take as one can hope for. Nobody played the position better than the seven-time Super Bowl champion. Brady spoke up recently on the development of young quarterbacks. He stated players don’t develop the same way they once did (when he played) in college. NFL teams then “dumb down” offenses so young quarterbacks can get on the field sooner.

Brady also discussed how quarterbacks benefit from playing under a veteran. He sat as a rookie behind Drew Bledsoe. Brady only started in his second season due to Bledsoe getting injured. Aaron Rodgers sat for three years behind Brett Favre in Green Bay. Patrick Mahomes watched Alex Smith run the Kansas City offense during his first year in the NFL.

.@TomBrady on if he would start Drake Maye:

"I think it's best for rookie quarterbacks to watch a veteran do it." pic.twitter.com/uzcTDGpwqc

— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) September 3, 2024

And while Tom Brady might be accurate in saying, “It’s best for rookie quarterbacks to watch a veteran do it,” that is not always a luxury teams have. It is also not always necessary. One needs only look at 2024’s top quarterbacks around the NFL to see the different paths they have taken to being excellent quarterbacks in the NFL.

Sixteen Quarterbacks on NFL Top 100 Players of 2024

Among the 100 players voted by their peers to the NFL Top 100 list for 2024 were 16 quarterbacks. The New England Patriots hope Drake Maye winds up on a Top 100 list before long, so that is the quarterback sampling used here. It also represents how things currently stand in the National Football League, making it more relevant than some examples that have been seen.

Not surprisingly, these 16 players did not begin their NFL careers identically. Some started Week 1 as rookies. Others took over during their rookie season. A quarter of the QBs were backups their entire first year, with a few waiting even longer. A look at how the 16 quarterbacks considered the top of their profession in 2024 got to where they are.

Week 1 Starters as Rookies (5)

Joe Burrow (Bengals), Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), C.J. Stroud (Texans), Matthew Stafford (Lions)

Cincinnati released incumbent starter Andy Dalton after drafting Joe Burrow in 2020. He took a beating as a rookie. Burrow finished 2-7-1 in 10 starts before ending the season on injured reserve. He rebounded to help the Bengals win the 2021 AFC title.

From @GMFB: The #Bengals appear to have lost QB Joe Burrow for the season with a torn ACL, ending a stellar rookie season for the No. 1 pick. pic.twitter.com/aU097RrP8L

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 23, 2020

Like Burrow, Lawrence struggled as a rookie, winning only three games in 2021. The next season he led the Jaguars to the AFC South title and a playoff win. Lawrence made his first Pro Bowl appearance too.

Only Prescott among this group was a surprise starter as a rookie. The 2016 fourth-round pick ascended the Dallas depth chart due to preseason injuries to starter Tony Romo and backup Kellen Moore. Prescott responded with one of the best seasons by a rookie QB in NFL history, leading the Cowboys to a 13-3 regular season record.

Stroud beat out Davis Mills for the starting job in Houston a year ago. He made the Pro Bowl, won Offensive Rookie of the Year, threw 24 touchdowns against five interceptions, and led the Texans to a playoff win.

Stafford, like Burrow and Lawrence, was the No. 1 overall selection in the draft. He was slated to start from the time the Lions called his name. Also like Burrow, he won only two games (2-8) in his rookie year before finishing the season on IR. He’d go on to win a Super Bowl with the Los Angeles Rams.

Week 2 Starters as Rookies (2)

Josh Allen (Bills), Justin Herbert (Chargers)

Allen backed up Nathan Peterman to begin his rookie season. By the third quarter of Week 1, Allen entered the game. He got injured during his rookie year and ended up starting 11 games. By year two there was significant improvement. In his third season, Allen led Buffalo to a 13-3 record and finished runner-up for NFL MVP.

Tyrod Taylor began the 2020 season as the Chargers starting quarterback. A freak incident (a trainer punctured Taylor’s lung) led to Herbert starting in Week 2. He retained the job even after Taylor was healthy, setting rookie passing records in the process.

Justin Herbert set a lot of rookie records last season 👇

Looking forward to Year 2 👀🍿 pic.twitter.com/c5TMJrc0RR

— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) July 25, 2021

Started Later in Their Rookie Year (5)

Jared Goff (Rams), Jalen Hurts (Eagles), Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Brock Purdy (49ers), Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)

Goff sat behind Case Keenum until Week 10. He went 0-7 for the remainder of the season. Goff returned the following year to receive his first Pro Bowl selection. By year three, he was in the Pro Bowl and the Super Bowl with the Rams.

Hurts started the 2020 season behind former No. 2 overall pick Carson Wentz. In the third quarter of Week 13, he received an opportunity. Hurts started Week 14 and never sat again. He led the 2022 Eagles to the NFC title.

Lamar Jackson began the 2018 season behind former Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco. Jackson started the final seven games of the regular season, leading the Ravens to a 6-1 record and a playoff berth. He has gone on to win two NFL Most Valuable Player Awards.

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson runs with the ball against the Los Angeles Rams on Dec. 10, 2023, in Baltimore. The Ravens won 37-31 in overtime. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Purdy wasn’t projected to play at all in 2022. But when Jimmy Garoppolo went down in Week 13, the rookie took over and never gave the job back. Purdy helped lead San Francisco to an NFC title in 2023, his first full season as a starter.

The Dolphins started Ryan Fitzpatrick over Tua Tagovailoa to begin the 2020 season. After a 3-3 start, Fitzpatrick was replaced by the rookie. Tagovailoa never won over head coach Brian Flores though. It was not a good coach-quarterback match, and Tagovailoa did not start to reach his potential until his third season. That’s when Mike McDaniel took over in Miami.

Waited At Least a Season Before Becoming QB1 (4)

Kirk Cousins (Commanders), Jordan Love (Packers), Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Aaron Rodgers (Packers)

Eliot Wolf wants to bring “The Packer Way” to New England. It’s hard not to notice half this group played for the Green Bay Packers. However, it is worth noting the caliber of quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love sat behind in Green Bay. Rodgers sat for three years behind Brett Favre. Love backed up Rodgers for two. Both excelled once they took over. However, in both cases, these were players drafted toward the end of Round 1 sitting behind future Hall of Famers. There was no discussion of either moving into the lineup in Week 1 as a rookie.

Here’s what Jordan Love’s bringing to the Packers 👀#NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/TFhCQ1hBFU

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) April 24, 2020

Patrick Mahomes joined a Kansas City Chiefs team that went 12-4 the year before his arrival. The Chiefs finished 10-6 in Mahomes rookie year. Quarterback Alex Smith was a Pro Bowl selection in both seasons. Mahomes started the final game of his rookie season due to their playoff position being clinched and not wanting Smith to get injured. Mahomes took over the following season (2018), threw 50 touchdown passes, and won NFL MVP. He’s gone on to win three Super Bowls since.

Washington drafted Cousins the same year they took Robert Griffin III with the second overall pick. He said until his fourth season when injuries had taken their toll on Griffin. Starting him sooner would have been akin to New England starting Joe Milton III over Drake Maye. However, Cousins didn’t get the “watch a veteran” benefit that some others did because he was part of the same draft class as the man he was backing up.

Rookie Quarterbacks Conclusion

There is no one right answer to when a rookie quarterback should play. Tom Brady is the greatest player in NFL history and didn’t play at all as a rookie. But Brady was also a sixth-round draft pick playing behind a Pro Bowl QB who was the NFL’s highest-paid player. Aaron Rodgers sat for three years but did so behind Brett Favre. Patrick Mahomes backed up a player with consecutive Pro Bowl seasons on a winning team.

The New England Patriots are not in a similar position to these situations. With all due respect to Jacboy Brissett, he’s a journeyman NFL QB. New England is his fifth NFL franchise in the past five years. The players mentioned above he compares closest to are Tyrod Taylor, Case Keener, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Daunte Culpper (2009 version). That is not a knock to Brissett; it is reality.

And while the focus is on the success stories of players who sat, what about those who started immediately? Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford took beatings but showed the toughness it took to come back and be successful. If not for injuries, Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert would not have started so soon. They went on to have two of the best seasons for any rookie quarterbacks in NFL history.

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) attempts a pass with pressure from the Philadelphia Eagles on, Dec. 10, 2023. (AP Photo/Sam Hodde)

Jackson, Goff, and Hurts were among those who started their rookie seasons on the sideline and finished in the lineup. Would the trajectory of their careers have been altered had they started in Week 1? Or if they sat out all season?

These 16 quarterbacks’ paths worked out well for each of them. Does that mean another path would not have garnered similar results? Would Patrick Mahomes playing as a rookie have made him less successful in the ensuing years?

The 2024 NFL Draft saw six quarterbacks drafted in the first round. Already, their careers are off to different starts. Caleb Williams (Bears), Jayden Daniels (Commanders), and Bo Nix (Broncos) will all be starting quarterbacks in Week 1. Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons) will only play this season if something happens to Kirk Cousins. J.J. McCarthy (Vikings) was battling for the starting job when an injury caused him to be sidelined for his rookie season. Drake Maye will start the season as Jacoby Brissett’s backup. Whether he sees the field for the first time in Week 2, Week 10, or not until 2025 remains to be seen.

With all due respect to Tom Brady, not all rookie quarterbacks need to follow the same path to find NFL success. What’s good for the GOAT is not always what’s best for the kids.