Week 1 NFL Odds: The Pats are Live Dogs

NFL Week 1 is here, and the New England Patriots start the Jerod Mayo era on the road, facing the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium. Kickoff is at 1 p.m.

With a consensus win-total of 4.5, bookmakers and experts aren’t expecting much from this rebuilding Pats organization. But I think their Week 1 NFL Odds as +9.5 are worth a look. 

I’m all in on taking the points with New England. Here’s why.

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The Bengals are Slow Starters

Bengals HC Zac Taylor places little to no value on preseason games. 

A wrist injury in Week 10 ended QB Joe Burrow’s 2023 season. Rather than risk further injury, Burrow sat for the preseason, save a single drive in the opener versus the Washington Commanders. Burrow says he wanted to play in the preseason finale, but Taylor vetoed. 

WR Ja’Marr Chase put himself in a “soft” contract holdout during training camp, only participating in individual drills. 

How can anyone expect the Bengals offense to roll in Week 1?

They haven’t during the Joe Burrow era. The Bengals eclipsed 20 points only once in four of Burrow’s season openers. And the Bengals against-the-spread record in those games is a meager 1-4.

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Low Scoring Benefits the Pats

The new-look, Belichick-less Patriots are a work in progress. 

Training camp reports say that third-overall pick, QB Drake Maye, is performing well. According to HC Jerod Mayo, he’s outperforming the veteran QB Jacoby Brissett. Brissett will start Week 1, however. 

The Pats starting QB won’t matter. The defense will win games. 

Despite a horrible win-loss record in 2023, the Pats’ defense was excellent. It ranked 14th in points allowed, 21.5. Their passing defense came in at 10th in yards allowed and third in rushing yards, giving up an average of 93.2 yards per game. 

The Bengals’ defense in 2023 was terrible. They ranked 22nd, allowing an average of 22.8 points per game. What killed Cincy, however, was their inability to stop the run. They allowed a putrid 126.2 rushing yards per game.

2023 doesn’t tell the 2024 story. Cincy’s defense will likely improve with the additions of S Gino Stone and the return of S Vonn Bell. The Pats lost maybe the most important piece on defense, HC Bill Belichick. 

But against a slow-starting Bengals offense, I like the Pats defense to keep this game close. 

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Final NFL Week 1 Odds Analysis

To cover, the Cincinnati Bengals will likely have to score 20+ points. I don’t see that happening. They’re a consistent regular season slow-starter on offense, and I expect a lot of stalled drives and three-and-outs from Burrow and company. 

Or, the Bengals will have to limit the Pats to a field goal or less. That’s possible but not likely. The Pats RB Rhamondre Stevenson should be able to pick up yards against a weak Cincy run defense. 

I’d love this number at +10 or higher, but I’m taking the 9.5, confident that the Bengals will stumble out of the gate.