Best NFL Futures Bets: New England Patriots

The New England Patriots enter a new era in 2024 with Jerod Mayo at the helm. After two decades of being the NFL top-dog franchise, the Pats now live in QB limbo with rookie Drake Maye and veteran Jacoby Brissett. 

Will Maye live up to his third-overall-pick pedigree? Or will the Patriots walk the NFL version of 40 years in the desert? 

Another miserable season in Foxboro shouldn’t discourage you. You can still make money on some Patriots NFL Futures bets. 

Here are my top two. 

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Drive for Week 5: Wins After Five Games Regular Season 2024/25: Two +250 (DraftKings)

I’m not in love with the odds at +250, but I think the New England Patriots will win two of their first five games. Call me crazy if you want. 

The Pats open the season on the road versus the Cincinnati Bengals. Bengals HC Zac Taylor doesn’t value first-team reps during the preseason. His Week 1 regular season record shows it. 

The Bengals are 1-3 in NFL regular season openers in QB Joe Burrow’s career. 

Burrow again saw limited game action this preseason. He completed five passes for 51 yards in the Bengals’ first preseason game. Star WR Ja’Marr Chase spent training camp embroiled in a contract dispute. 

All signs point to another Bengals slow start, giving the edge to the New England defense. The Pats’ defense was the league’s best through the final half of the 2023 season, with an EPA of minus-0.12. 

The Patriots then travel to play their division rival, the New York Jets, in Week 3. 

The Jets are the sexy team in the AFC East, with veteran QB Aaron Rodgers returning after an Achilles tear derailed his 2023 season. Rodgers didn’t take a snap during the 2024 preseason.

Can Rodgers summon his 2021 NFL MVP performance at 40 years old and after a severe injury? I’m not buying that he can.

Last year, the Patriots finished the season ranked 10th in passing defense, allowing 208.4 passing yards per game. They did so without the services of rookie CB Christian Gonzalez. 

With Gonzalez back and a refocused defensive attack under Jerod Mayo, I think the Pats may punch the Jets in the mouth in Week 3 and end the Jets’ fairytale. 

Regular Season Wins: Over 4.5 -140 (Fanatics)

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This is a correlated play. If you believe the Pats can win two of their first five games, you have to think they win at least three out of the remaining 12. 

HC Jerod Mayo announced Brissett as the Week 1 starter. I’m not sure who plays QB will make a difference.

The Patriots offense isn’t winning games with Brissett or Maye under center. The defense will get them to five wins. 

Yes, LB Matthew Judon is gone. But he only played in four games during the 2023 season. Without Judon, the Pats defense finished 2023 ranked in the top 10 in both rushing and passing yards allowed. 

New England’s defense still has talent all over the field. The secondary boasts 2023 first-round pick Christian Gonzalez at CB and former first-round S Jabrill Peppers. The front seven isn’t as good but includes LB Jahlani Tavai, who finished 110 total tackles, 65 of them solo. 

I have games against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Chicago Bears, and Indianapolis Colts circled as possible wins in the 2024 season.